Xpect
Guingamp vs Rodez: prediction and statistics
France · Ligue 2 · 20 November 2026 · kick-off
Before kick-off
Ligue 2, 20 November 2026: Guingamp are at home to Rodez. They are neighbours in the table: Guingamp are 11th and Rodez 13th of 18.
Recent results of Guingamp are mostly positive — 3 wins and 2 defeats from 5 games. Rodez have blown hot and cold: 2 wins and 3 defeats in the last 5 matches.
At home (2024/25–2026/27) Guingamp have 18 wins, 9 draws and 13 defeats in 40 matches, averaging 1.6 goals scored and 1.3 conceded. The away record of Rodez: 13 wins, 14 draws and 15 defeats in 42 matches, with 1.5 goals scored and 1.6 conceded on average.
This fixture often ends level: 7 of the 14 meetings in the Xpect database were draws. The most recent meeting, on 28 February 2026, finished Guingamp 0:0 Rodez. On average these meetings produce 2.4 goals.
Form
Guingamp: last five matches — W-L-W-L-W.
- 6 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · at home
- 3 matches in a row without both teams scoring · all competitions
Rodez: last five matches — W-L-L-W-L.
Table: Guingamp — 11, Rodez — 13 (of 18).
Home and away record
Guingamp at home and Rodez away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Guingamp | Rodez | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 40 | 42 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 18-9-13 | 13-14-15 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.3 | 1.6 |
Head to head
14 meetings in our database: Guingamp won 5, 7 draws, Rodez won 2. Per match: 2.4 goals.
- 28.02.2026: Guingamp 0:0 Rodez
- 12.12.2025: Rodez 2:1 Guingamp
- 17.01.2025: Guingamp 3:0 Rodez
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- No clear favourite in our model: 39% – 25% – 36%.
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 63% of Guingamp’s home matches and 60% of Rodez’s away matches over three seasons.
- Draws are common in this fixture: 7 of 14 meetings.
- Our model expects more corners from Guingamp: 5.1 against 4.0 for Rodez.
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.1 corners in the match: Guingamp 5.1, Rodez 4.0. In a typical match of this competition — 9.2. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 43% (typical match — 44%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 57%, typical match 56%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.9 yellow cards: Guingamp 1.9, Rodez 2.1; typical match of the competition — 3.8. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 35% (typical match — 34%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 55%, typical match 54%.
Result
Our model: Guingamp win 39%, draw 25%, Rodez win 36%. Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 56%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Guingamp | Rodez | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 45% | 31% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 60% |
| Both teams score | 45% | 64% |
| Total corners per match | 9.7 | 10.0 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 48% | 57% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.1 | 3.7 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 40% | 21% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 10.1 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 4.1 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.