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Metz vs Boulogne: prediction and statistics
France · Ligue 2 · 20 November 2026 · kick-off
Before kick-off
Ligue 2, 20 November 2026: Metz are at home to Boulogne. Metz go into the match 7th of 18 in the table, Boulogne are 12th.
Recent results of Metz are mostly positive — 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat from 5 games. Boulogne have blown hot and cold: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in the last 5 matches.
Metz are hard to beat on their own ground — 14 wins, 8 draws and 2 defeats in 24 home matches (2024/25–2026/27), with 2.1 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game. The away record of Boulogne: 7 wins, 9 draws and 8 defeats in 24 matches, with 0.8 goals scored and 0.8 conceded on average.
Head to head, Metz have the upper hand: 5 wins in 6 meetings with Boulogne in the Xpect database. The most recent meeting, on 24 May 2013, finished Boulogne 1:0 Metz. On average these meetings produce 2.0 goals.
Form
Metz: last five matches — D-W-D-W-L.
- 9 matches in a row both teams scored · at home
- 5 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · at home
Boulogne: last five matches — D-L-D-W-L.
- 3 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · away
- 3 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · away
Table: Metz — 7, Boulogne — 12 (of 18).
Home and away record
Metz at home and Boulogne away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Metz | Boulogne | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 24 | 24 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 14-8-2 | 7-9-8 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.0 | 0.8 |
Head to head
6 meetings in our database: Metz won 5, 0 draws, Boulogne won 1. Per match: 2.0 goals.
- 24.05.2013: Boulogne 1:0 Metz
- 03.08.2012: Metz 2:1 Boulogne
- 30.03.2012: Metz 1:0 Boulogne
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Head to head favours Metz: 5 wins in 6 meetings with Boulogne.
- Our model expects more corners from Metz: 6.0 against 3.4 for Boulogne.
- Metz is the more likely winner in our model: 52%, draw 24%.
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 58% of Metz’s home matches and 25% of Boulogne’s away matches over three seasons.
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.4 corners in the match: Metz 6.0, Boulogne 3.4. In a typical match of this competition — 9.2. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 46% (typical match — 44%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 8.5 — 59%, typical match 57%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.9 yellow cards: Metz 1.8, Boulogne 2.1; typical match of the competition — 3.8. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 36% (typical match — 34%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 55%, typical match 54%.
Result
Our model: Metz win 52%, draw 24%, Boulogne win 24%. Over 2.5 goals — 51%, both teams to score — 53%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Metz | Boulogne | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 58% | 29% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 25% |
| Both teams score | 67% | 38% |
| Total corners per match | 9.1 | 9.3 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 52% | 42% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.6 | 4.0 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 33% | 38% |
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.