Xpect
Minnesota United FC vs St. Louis City: prediction and statistics
USA · MLS · 17 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.2 corners in the match: Minnesota United FC 5.7, St. Louis City 4.5. In a typical match of this competition — 10.0. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 56% (typical match — 54%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 56%, typical match 54%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.2 yellow cards: Minnesota United FC 2.0, St. Louis City 2.1; typical match of the competition — 4.0. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 40% (typical match — 38%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 60%, typical match 57%.
Form
Minnesota United FC: last five matches — W-L-D-L-L.
- 10 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
- 8 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 7 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
St. Louis City: last five matches — D-W-D-W-W.
- 19 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 8 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 4 wins in a row · all competitions
Table: Minnesota United FC — 26, St. Louis City — 3 (of 30).
Team statistics for three seasons
Minnesota United FC at home and St. Louis City away, 2024–2026.
| Minnesota United FC | St. Louis City | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 50 | 48 |
| Win rate | 34% | 21% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.3 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 60% |
| Both teams score | 62% | 63% |
| Total corners per match | 10.2 | 10.6 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 58% | 56% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.9 | 3.9 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 36% | 38% |
Head to head
8 meetings in our database: Minnesota United FC won 6, 0 draws, St. Louis City won 2. Per match: 3.8 goals, 9.4 corners, 3.6 yellow cards.
- 13.09.2026: St. Louis City 4:2 Minnesota United FC
- 27.07.2025: St. Louis City 1:2 Minnesota United FC
- 21.05.2025: Minnesota United FC 3:2 St. Louis City
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Minnesota United FC vs St. Louis City?
Our model expects 10.2 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 56%.
How many yellow cards in Minnesota United FC vs St. Louis City?
Our model expects 4.2 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 40%.