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Ascoli vs Vicenza Virtus: prediction and statistics
Italy · Serie B · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Ascoli · Vicenza Virtus
Before kick-off
Ascoli host Vicenza Virtus in Serie B on 21 November 2026. In the table there is clear daylight between them: Ascoli are 3rd of 20, Vicenza Virtus 19th — a gap of 16 places. Ascoli are in the top three. Vicenza Virtus are fighting at the wrong end of the table.
Ascoli arrive in excellent form: 3 wins and 2 draws in the last 5 matches. Vicenza Virtus are in a difficult spell: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in the last 5 matches. Counted in points, Ascoli took 11 from that stretch and Vicenza Virtus only 4.
Home advantage matters here: Ascoli have 3 wins and 3 draws in 6 home matches (2024/25–2026/27), scoring 1.5 and conceding 0.7 per game. Vicenza Virtus find it hard on the road: 1 win, 2 draws and 3 defeats in 6 away matches, 1.3 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per game.
The 6 previous meetings are fairly balanced — Ascoli 3, Vicenza Virtus 2, draws 1. Last time out (20 March 2022) it ended Vicenza Virtus 2:0 Ascoli. On average these meetings produce 2.5 goals.
Form
Ascoli: last five matches — W-W-D-W-D.
- 7 matches unbeaten · at home
- 5 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · at home
Vicenza Virtus: last five matches — L-L-D-W-L.
- 5 matches in a row under 9.5 corners · all competitions
- 3 losses in a row · all competitions
- 3 matches without a win · all competitions
Table: Ascoli — 3, Vicenza Virtus — 19 (of 20).
Home and away record
Ascoli at home and Vicenza Virtus away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Ascoli | Vicenza Virtus | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 3-3-0 | 1-2-3 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.7 | 2.0 |
Head to head
6 meetings in our database: Ascoli won 3, 1 draws, Vicenza Virtus won 2. Per match: 2.5 goals.
- 20.03.2022: Vicenza Virtus 2:0 Ascoli
- 06.11.2021: Ascoli 2:1 Vicenza Virtus
- 05.04.2021: Ascoli 2:1 Vicenza Virtus
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 17% of Ascoli home games and 83% of Vicenza Virtus away games.
- Our model makes Ascoli the favourite at 57%; a draw is 23%.
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 9.8 corners in the match: Ascoli 5.3, Vicenza Virtus 4.4. In a typical match of this competition — 9.8. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 51% (typical match — 51%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 10.5 — 61%, typical match 61%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 5.0 yellow cards: Ascoli 2.2, Vicenza Virtus 2.8; typical match of the competition — 4.9. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 55% (typical match — 54%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 4.5 — 55%, typical match 54%.
Result
Our model: Ascoli win 57%, draw 23%, Vicenza Virtus win 20%. Over 2.5 goals — 54%, both teams to score — 53%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Ascoli | Vicenza Virtus | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 50% | 17% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 17% | 83% |
| Both teams score | 67% | 67% |
| Total corners per match | 11.8 | 7.7 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 67% | 0% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.0 | 5.2 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 33% | 67% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 10.7 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 6.0 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.