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Arezzo vs Padova: prediction and statistics
Italy · Serie B · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Before kick-off
Serie B, 21 November 2026: Arezzo are at home to Padova. Arezzo go into the match 15th of 20 in the table, Padova are 12th.
The last 5 games brought Arezzo no victory — 2 draws and 3 defeats. Padova have blown hot and cold: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in the last 5 matches. On points from those games the gap is clear: 7 for Padova against 2 for Arezzo.
Arezzo have not made their ground a fortress: 1 win, 2 draws and 3 defeats in 6 home matches (2024/25–2026/27), 1.0 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game. The away record of Padova: 8 wins, 4 draws and 12 defeats in 24 matches, with 1.0 goals scored and 1.4 conceded on average.
The sides have rarely met: the Xpect database holds 2 meetings between them. The most recent meeting, on 17 February 2021, finished Padova 2:0 Arezzo.
Form
Arezzo: last five matches — L-L-D-L-D.
- 5 matches without a win · at home
- 3 matches in a row without both teams scoring · at home
Padova: last five matches — W-L-L-W-D.
- 9 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · away
- 4 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · away
Table: Arezzo — 15, Padova — 12 (of 20).
Home and away record
Arezzo at home and Padova away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Arezzo | Padova | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 6 | 24 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 1-2-3 | 8-4-12 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.8 | 1.4 |
Head to head
2 meetings in our database: Arezzo won 0, 0 draws, Padova won 2. Per match: 3.5 goals.
- 17.02.2021: Padova 2:0 Arezzo
- 21.10.2020: Arezzo 0:5 Padova
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 67% of Arezzo’s home matches and 42% of Padova’s away matches over three seasons.
- Our model expects more corners from Arezzo: 5.6 against 3.8 for Padova.
- No clear favourite in our model: 35% – 26% – 39%.
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.4 corners in the match: Arezzo 5.6, Padova 3.8. In a typical match of this competition — 9.8. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 47% (typical match — 51%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 53%, typical match 49%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.2 yellow cards: Arezzo 1.8, Padova 2.4; typical match of the competition — 4.9. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 42% (typical match — 54%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 59%, typical match 46%.
Result
Our model: Arezzo win 35%, draw 26%, Padova win 39%. Over 2.5 goals — 49%, both teams to score — 54%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Arezzo | Padova | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 17% | 33% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 42% |
| Both teams score | 50% | 46% |
| Total corners per match | 8.8 | 10.5 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 60% | 63% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.7 | 4.3 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 17% | 46% |
Head to head
Yellow cards in their meetings: 3.0 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.