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Modena vs Juve Stabia: prediction and statistics
Italy · Serie B · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Modena · Juve Stabia
Before kick-off
Serie B, 21 November 2026: Modena are at home to Juve Stabia. Modena sit 2nd in the 20-team table while Juve Stabia are 9th, so 7 places separate the two sides. Modena are part of the leading group.
Recent results of Modena are mostly positive — 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat from 5 games. Juve Stabia are unbeaten in the last 5 matches: 1 win and 4 draws.
At home (2024/25–2026/27) Modena have 18 wins, 13 draws and 13 defeats in 44 matches, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 1.1 conceded. The away record of Juve Stabia: 10 wins, 21 draws and 16 defeats in 47 matches, with 1.0 goals scored and 1.4 conceded on average.
Head to head, Modena have the upper hand: 3 wins in 5 meetings with Juve Stabia in the Xpect database. The most recent meeting, on 12 May 2026, finished Modena 0:1 Juve Stabia. On average these meetings produce 2.6 goals.
Form
Modena: last five matches — L-W-W-W-D.
- 4 matches unbeaten · at home
- 4 matches in a row under 9.5 corners · at home
- 3 matches in a row over 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
Juve Stabia: last five matches — D-D-D-W-D.
- 6 matches unbeaten · away
- 4 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · away
Table: Modena — 2, Juve Stabia — 9 (of 20).
Home and away record
Modena at home and Juve Stabia away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Modena | Juve Stabia | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 44 | 47 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 18-13-13 | 10-21-16 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.1 | 1.4 |
Head to head
5 meetings in our database: Modena won 3, 0 draws, Juve Stabia won 2. Per match: 2.6 goals.
- 12.05.2026: Modena 0:1 Juve Stabia
- 22.02.2026: Juve Stabia 1:2 Modena
- 02.11.2025: Modena 3:0 Juve Stabia
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Modena is the more likely winner in our model: 54%, draw 24%.
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 59% of Modena’s home matches and 47% of Juve Stabia’s away matches over three seasons.
- Head to head favours Modena: 3 wins in 5 meetings with Juve Stabia.
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.5 corners in the match: Modena 5.2, Juve Stabia 4.3. In a typical match of this competition — 9.8. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 48% (typical match — 51%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 52%, typical match 49%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.1 yellow cards: Modena 1.9, Juve Stabia 2.2; typical match of the competition — 4.9. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 40% (typical match — 54%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 60%, typical match 46%.
Result
Our model: Modena win 54%, draw 24%, Juve Stabia win 22%. Over 2.5 goals — 49%, both teams to score — 51%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Modena | Juve Stabia | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 41% | 21% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 47% |
| Both teams score | 61% | 60% |
| Total corners per match | 8.0 | 8.6 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 30% | 38% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.8 | 4.8 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 55% | 51% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 12.2 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 4.8 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.