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Avellino vs Mantova: prediction and statistics
Italy · Serie B · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Avellino · Mantova
Before kick-off
Serie B, 21 November 2026: Avellino are at home to Mantova. They are neighbours in the table: Avellino are 6th and Mantova 4th of 20.
Recent results of Avellino are mostly positive — 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat from 5 games. Mantova have been solid lately: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in the last 5 matches.
At home (2024/25–2026/27) Avellino have 12 wins, 6 draws and 7 defeats in 25 matches, averaging 1.5 goals scored and 1.2 conceded. The away record of Mantova: 9 wins, 13 draws and 21 defeats in 43 matches, with 1.1 goals scored and 1.6 conceded on average.
The sides have rarely met: the Xpect database holds 2 meetings between them. The most recent meeting, on 18 April 2026, finished Mantova 0:2 Avellino.
Form
Avellino: last five matches — W-D-W-L-W.
- 5 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 3 matches unbeaten · all competitions
Mantova: last five matches — L-D-W-W-D.
- 5 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 5 matches in a row under 9.5 corners · all competitions
- 4 matches unbeaten · away
Table: Avellino — 6, Mantova — 4 (of 20).
Home and away record
Avellino at home and Mantova away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Avellino | Mantova | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 25 | 43 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 12-6-7 | 9-13-21 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.2 | 1.6 |
Head to head
2 meetings in our database: Avellino won 1, 1 draws, Mantova won 0. Per match: 1.0 goals.
- 18.04.2026: Mantova 0:2 Avellino
- 04.10.2025: Avellino 0:0 Mantova
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- No clear favourite in our model: 40% – 25% – 35%.
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 52% of Avellino’s home matches and 56% of Mantova’s away matches over three seasons.
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.2 corners in the match: Avellino 4.8, Mantova 4.4. In a typical match of this competition — 9.8. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 44% (typical match — 51%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 56%, typical match 49%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.6 yellow cards: Avellino 2.3, Mantova 2.3; typical match of the competition — 4.9. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 49% (typical match — 54%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 51%, typical match 46%.
Result
Our model: Avellino win 40%, draw 25%, Mantova win 35%. Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 58%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Avellino | Mantova | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 48% | 21% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 56% |
| Both teams score | 52% | 58% |
| Total corners per match | 9.3 | 9.3 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 52% | 48% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.7 | 4.9 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 44% | 65% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 13.5 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 3.0 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.