Xpect
Empoli vs Pisa: prediction and statistics
Italy · Serie B · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Before kick-off
Empoli host Pisa in Serie B on 21 November 2026. In the table there is clear daylight between them: Pisa are 8th of 20, Empoli 18th — a gap of 10 places. Empoli are in the bottom three.
Results have gone against Empoli recently — 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats from the last 5 games. An uneven run for Pisa: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats from the last 5 games. Measured in points the two runs are close — 4 and 5.
The home record of Empoli (2024/25–2026/27) is balanced: 6 wins, 12 draws and 6 defeats in 24 matches, 1.4 scored and 1.3 conceded per game. On the road Pisa are a dangerous side — 11 wins, 6 draws and 7 defeats in 24 away matches, 1.4 scored and 1.0 conceded per game.
History favours Empoli — 3 wins from 5 meetings with Pisa. Last time out (17 August 2026) it ended Pisa 1:1 Empoli. On average these meetings produce 3.2 goals.
Form
Empoli: last five matches — W-L-L-L-D.
- 10 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · at home
- 8 matches without a win · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
Pisa: last five matches — D-L-W-D-L.
- 4 matches without a win · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · away
Table: Empoli — 18, Pisa — 8 (of 20).
Home and away record
Empoli at home and Pisa away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Empoli | Pisa | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 24 | 24 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 6-12-6 | 11-6-7 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.3 | 1.0 |
Head to head
5 meetings in our database: Empoli won 3, 2 draws, Pisa won 0. Per match: 3.2 goals.
- 17.08.2026: Pisa 1:1 Empoli
- 20.02.2021: Pisa 1:1 Empoli
- 23.10.2020: Empoli 3:1 Pisa
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 38% of Empoli home games and 46% of Pisa away games.
- Our model sees an open game: Empoli 33%, draw 25%, Pisa 43%.
- Empoli should win the corner count: 5.3 expected against 4.2 for Pisa.
- Empoli has won 3 of the last 5 meetings with Pisa.
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.6 corners in the match: Empoli 5.3, Pisa 4.2. In a typical match of this competition — 9.8. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 49% (typical match — 51%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 51%, typical match 49%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.0 yellow cards: Empoli 2.0, Pisa 2.0; typical match of the competition — 4.9. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 37% (typical match — 54%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 63%, typical match 46%.
Result
Our model: Empoli win 33%, draw 25%, Pisa win 43%. Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 58%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Empoli | Pisa | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 25% | 46% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 46% |
| Both teams score | 67% | 46% |
| Total corners per match | 9.3 | 8.9 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 42% | 38% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.0 | 4.4 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 29% | 46% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 8.4 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 4.4 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.