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Catanzaro vs Palermo: prediction and statistics
Italy · Serie B · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Catanzaro · Palermo
Before kick-off
Serie B, 21 November 2026: Catanzaro are at home to Palermo. Palermo sit 1st in the 20-team table while Catanzaro are 20th, so 19 places separate the two sides. Catanzaro are fighting at the wrong end of the table.
An uneven run for Catanzaro: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats from the last 5 games. Palermo are unbeaten in the last 5 matches: 2 wins and 3 draws.
At home (2024/25–2026/27) Catanzaro have 20 wins, 18 draws and 9 defeats in 47 matches, averaging 1.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded. The away record of Palermo: 15 wins, 16 draws and 15 defeats in 46 matches, with 1.4 goals scored and 1.3 conceded on average.
Head to head there is no clear master over 13 meetings — wins: Catanzaro 6, Palermo 3; draws: 4. The most recent meeting, on 20 May 2026, finished Palermo 2:0 Catanzaro. On average these meetings produce 2.2 goals.
Form
Catanzaro: last five matches — D-W-L-L-D.
- 7 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · at home
- 7 matches without a win · all competitions
- 6 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · all competitions
Palermo: last five matches — D-W-W-D-D.
- 13 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 12 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · away
- 5 matches in a row under 9.5 corners · away
Table: Catanzaro — 20, Palermo — 1 (of 20).
Home and away record
Catanzaro at home and Palermo away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Catanzaro | Palermo | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 47 | 46 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 20-18-9 | 15-16-15 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.2 | 1.3 |
Head to head
13 meetings in our database: Catanzaro won 6, 4 draws, Palermo won 3. Per match: 2.2 goals.
- 20.05.2026: Palermo 2:0 Catanzaro
- 17.05.2026: Catanzaro 3:0 Palermo
- 01.05.2026: Palermo 3:2 Catanzaro
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 51% of Catanzaro’s home matches and 50% of Palermo’s away matches over three seasons.
- Our model expects more corners from Catanzaro: 5.3 against 4.3 for Palermo.
- Palermo is the more likely winner in our model: 61%, draw 20%.
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.6 corners in the match: Catanzaro 5.3, Palermo 4.3. In a typical match of this competition — 9.8. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 49% (typical match — 51%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 51%, typical match 49%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.1 yellow cards: Catanzaro 1.9, Palermo 2.2; typical match of the competition — 4.9. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 39% (typical match — 54%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 62%, typical match 46%.
Result
Our model: Catanzaro win 19%, draw 20%, Palermo win 61%. Over 2.5 goals — 63%, both teams to score — 60%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Catanzaro | Palermo | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 43% | 33% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 50% |
| Both teams score | 55% | 61% |
| Total corners per match | 9.4 | 10.0 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 55% | 56% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.5 | 4.2 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 47% | 35% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 8.4 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 5.1 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.