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Sudtirol vs Cremonese: prediction and statistics
Italy · Serie B · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Sudtirol · Cremonese
Before kick-off
Sudtirol host Cremonese in Serie B on 21 November 2026. Very little separates them in the standings — Sudtirol are 11th, Cremonese 10th in a table of 20.
Sudtirol are still looking for a win: 4 draws and 1 defeat in the last 5 matches. Recent results of Cremonese are mostly positive — 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat from 5 games. Counted in points, Cremonese took 10 from that stretch and Sudtirol only 4.
The home record of Sudtirol (2024/25–2026/27) is balanced: 13 wins, 19 draws and 13 defeats in 45 matches, 1.1 scored and 1.1 conceded per game. On the road Cremonese are a dangerous side — 12 wins, 7 draws and 8 defeats in 27 away matches, 1.7 scored and 1.2 conceded per game.
The 4 previous meetings are fairly balanced — Sudtirol 2, Cremonese 2, draws 0. Last time out (9 February 2025) it ended Cremonese 3:1 Sudtirol. On average these meetings produce 3.0 goals.
Form
Sudtirol: last five matches — D-L-D-D-D.
- 7 matches without a win · all competitions
- 3 matches unbeaten · at home
- 3 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · at home
Cremonese: last five matches — W-D-L-W-W.
- 3 wins in a row · all competitions
- 3 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row under 9.5 corners · all competitions
Table: Sudtirol — 11, Cremonese — 10 (of 20).
Home and away record
Sudtirol at home and Cremonese away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Sudtirol | Cremonese | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 45 | 27 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 13-19-13 | 12-7-8 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.1 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.1 | 1.2 |
Head to head
4 meetings in our database: Sudtirol won 2, 0 draws, Cremonese won 2. Per match: 3.0 goals.
- 09.02.2025: Cremonese 3:1 Sudtirol
- 30.11.2024: Sudtirol 0:4 Cremonese
- 16.03.2024: Sudtirol 3:0 Cremonese
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 42% of Sudtirol home games and 63% of Cremonese away games.
- Our model makes Cremonese the favourite at 51%; a draw is 27%.
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.2 corners in the match: Sudtirol 5.0, Cremonese 4.1. In a typical match of this competition — 9.8. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 43% (typical match — 51%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 57%, typical match 49%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.3 yellow cards: Sudtirol 2.0, Cremonese 2.3; typical match of the competition — 4.9. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 42% (typical match — 54%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 58%, typical match 46%.
Result
Our model: Sudtirol win 23%, draw 27%, Cremonese win 51%. Over 2.5 goals — 42%, both teams to score — 46%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Sudtirol | Cremonese | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 29% | 44% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 63% |
| Both teams score | 60% | 59% |
| Total corners per match | 9.3 | 8.6 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 44% | 30% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.3 | 5.3 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 38% | 63% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 10.5 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 2.8 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.