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Carrarese vs Virtus Entella: prediction and statistics

Italy · Serie B · 21 November 2026 · kick-off

Team stats: Carrarese · Virtus Entella

Before kick-off

Carrarese host Virtus Entella in Serie B on 21 November 2026. Very little separates them in the standings — Carrarese are 17th, Virtus Entella 16th in a table of 20.

Carrarese have blown hot and cold: 2 wins and 3 defeats in the last 5 matches. An uneven run for Virtus Entella: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats from the last 5 games. Measured in points the two runs are close — 6 and 7.

The home record of Carrarese (2024/25–2026/27) is balanced: 19 wins, 13 draws and 12 defeats in 44 matches, 1.3 scored and 0.9 conceded per game. Virtus Entella find it hard on the road: 3 wins, 6 draws and 15 defeats in 24 away matches, 0.6 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game. Both samples are low on goals: 2.2 per game in home matches of Carrarese and 2.2 in away matches of Virtus Entella.

The 13 previous meetings are fairly balanced — Carrarese 5, Virtus Entella 5, draws 3. Last time out (8 August 2026) it ended Virtus Entella 0:1 Carrarese. On average these meetings produce 2.5 goals.

Form

Carrarese: last five matches — L-L-W-W-L.

Virtus Entella: last five matches — L-W-D-W-L.

Table: Carrarese — 17, Virtus Entella — 16 (of 20).

Home and away record

Carrarese at home and Virtus Entella away, 2024/25–2026/27.

CarrareseVirtus Entella
Matches4424
Wins · draws · losses19-13-123-6-15
Goals scored per match1.30.6
Goals conceded per match0.91.6

Head to head

13 meetings in our database: Carrarese won 5, 3 draws, Virtus Entella won 5. Per match: 2.5 goals.

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Key facts

  • Carrarese should win the corner count: 5.3 expected against 4.2 for Virtus Entella.
  • Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 43% of Carrarese home games and 33% of Virtus Entella away games.
  • Our model sees an open game: Carrarese 43%, draw 29%, Virtus Entella 28%.

Corners

53%

Corners under 9.5

Our model expects 9.5 corners in the match: Carrarese 5.3, Virtus Entella 4.2. In a typical match of this competition — 9.8. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 47% (typical match — 51%).

This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 53%, typical match 49%.

Yellow cards

58%

Yellow cards under 4.5

Our model expects 4.2 yellow cards: Carrarese 2.0, Virtus Entella 2.2; typical match of the competition — 4.9. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 42% (typical match — 54%).

This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 58%, typical match 46%.

Result

Our model: Carrarese win 43%, draw 29%, Virtus Entella win 28%. Over 2.5 goals — 38%, both teams to score — 44%.

Team statistics for three seasons

CarrareseVirtus Entella
Win rate43%13%
Over 2.5 goals43%33%
Both teams score36%38%
Total corners per match9.48.9
Over 9.5 corners52%50%
Total yellow cards per match4.63.5
Over 4.5 yellow cards52%33%

Head to head

Corners in their meetings: 10.5 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 3.3 per match on average.

How we calculate

Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.

Other matches

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