Xpect
Bahia vs Coritiba: prediction and statistics
Brazil · Serie A · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Before kick-off
Bahia host Coritiba in Serie A on 21 November 2026. In the table there is clear daylight between them: Bahia are 6th of 20, Coritiba 13th — a gap of 7 places.
Bahia arrive in excellent form: 4 wins and 1 defeat in the last 5 matches. Coritiba are in a difficult spell: 1 win and 4 defeats in the last 5 matches. Counted in points, Bahia took 12 from that stretch and Coritiba only 3.
Home advantage matters here: Bahia have 33 wins, 12 draws and 10 defeats in 55 home matches (2024–2026), scoring 1.5 and conceding 0.9 per game. Away from home Coritiba have 5 wins, 4 draws and 8 defeats in 17 matches, scoring 1.1 and conceding 1.8 per game.
Draws are a feature of this pairing — 8 in 15 meetings. Last time out (25 May 2026) it ended Coritiba 3:2 Bahia. On average these meetings produce 2.5 goals.
Form
Bahia: last five matches — W-W-W-L-W.
- 4 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row over 4.5 yellow cards · at home
- 3 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
Coritiba: last five matches — W-L-L-L-L.
- 5 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 5 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · all competitions
- 4 losses in a row · away
Table: Bahia — 6, Coritiba — 13 (of 20).
Home and away record
Bahia at home and Coritiba away, 2024–2026.
| Bahia | Coritiba | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 55 | 17 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 33-12-10 | 5-4-8 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.9 | 1.8 |
Head to head
15 meetings in our database: Bahia won 4, 8 draws, Coritiba won 3. Per match: 2.5 goals.
- 25.05.2026: Coritiba 3:2 Bahia
- 14.09.2023: Coritiba 2:4 Bahia
- 07.05.2023: Bahia 3:1 Coritiba
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 46% of Bahia home games and 53% of Coritiba away games.
- Our model makes Bahia the favourite at 64%; a draw is 21%.
- Bahia should win the corner count: 7.7 expected against 3.4 for Coritiba.
- 8 of the 15 meetings between these teams ended in a draw.
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 11.1 corners in the match: Bahia 7.7, Coritiba 3.4. In a typical match of this competition — 10.4. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 67% (typical match — 59%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 10.5 — 56%, typical match 47%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.3 yellow cards: Bahia 2.0, Coritiba 2.2; typical match of the competition — 4.9. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 43% (typical match — 54%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 57%, typical match 46%.
Result
Our model: Bahia win 64%, draw 21%, Coritiba win 15%. Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 50%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Bahia | Coritiba | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 60% | 29% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 53% |
| Both teams score | 49% | 35% |
| Total corners per match | 9.8 | 10.8 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 56% | 59% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.2 | 3.9 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 56% | 35% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 9.7 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 4.6 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.