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Bolton vs Portsmouth: prediction and statistics
England · Championship · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Bolton · Portsmouth
Before kick-off
Bolton host Portsmouth in Championship on 21 November 2026. In the table there is clear daylight between them: Portsmouth are 11th of 24, Bolton 18th — a gap of 7 places.
Results have gone against Bolton recently — 1 win and 4 defeats from the last 5 games. An uneven run for Portsmouth: 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat from the last 5 games.
Home matches have been a struggle for Bolton (2024/25–2026/27) — 2 wins and 5 defeats in 7 games, scoring 1.3 and conceding 2.1 on average. Away from home Portsmouth have 11 wins, 15 draws and 27 defeats in 53 matches, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.8 per game.
The 23 previous meetings are fairly balanced — Bolton 8, Portsmouth 10, draws 5. Last time out (13 April 2024) it ended Bolton 1:1 Portsmouth. On average these meetings produce 2.3 goals.
Form
Bolton: last five matches — L-W-L-L-L.
- 4 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · at home
- 4 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 3 losses in a row · at home
Portsmouth: last five matches — D-L-W-D-D.
- 5 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · away
- 4 matches in a row under 9.5 corners · away
- 3 matches unbeaten · away
Table: Bolton — 18, Portsmouth — 11 (of 24).
Home and away record
Bolton at home and Portsmouth away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Bolton | Portsmouth | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 7 | 53 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 2-0-5 | 11-15-27 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.1 | 1.8 |
Head to head
23 meetings in our database: Bolton won 8, 5 draws, Portsmouth won 10. Per match: 2.3 goals.
- 13.04.2024: Bolton 1:1 Portsmouth
- 11.12.2023: Portsmouth 2:0 Bolton
- 28.02.2023: Portsmouth 3:1 Bolton
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Our model sees an open game: Bolton 31%, draw 25%, Portsmouth 45%.
- Portsmouth should win the corner count: 5.8 expected against 4.6 for Bolton.
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 71% of Bolton home games and 53% of Portsmouth away games.
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.4 corners in the match: Bolton 4.6, Portsmouth 5.8. In a typical match of this competition — 10.2. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 59% (typical match — 57%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 59%, typical match 57%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.4 yellow cards: Bolton 1.8, Portsmouth 1.7; typical match of the competition — 3.8. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 26% (typical match — 33%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 3.5 — 55%, typical match 48%.
Result
Our model: Bolton win 31%, draw 25%, Portsmouth win 45%. Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 56%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Bolton | Portsmouth | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 29% | 21% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 53% |
| Both teams score | 71% | 59% |
| Total corners per match | 12.3 | 10.5 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 71% | 60% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.3 | 3.9 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 29% | 32% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 9.8 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 2.8 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.