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Middlesbrough vs Bristol City: prediction and statistics
England · Championship · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Middlesbrough · Bristol City
Before kick-off
Championship, 21 November 2026: Middlesbrough are at home to Bristol City. Middlesbrough sit 2nd in the 24-team table while Bristol City are 17th, so 15 places separate the two sides. Middlesbrough are part of the leading group.
Few sides are in better shape than Middlesbrough right now — 3 wins and 2 draws from the last 5 games. Bristol City have been solid lately: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in the last 5 matches.
At home (2024/25–2026/27) Middlesbrough have 28 wins, 15 draws and 11 defeats in 54 matches, averaging 1.5 goals scored and 0.9 conceded. The away record of Bristol City: 15 wins, 20 draws and 19 defeats in 54 matches, with 1.1 goals scored and 1.4 conceded on average.
Head to head there is no clear master over 24 meetings — wins: Middlesbrough 5, Bristol City 14; draws: 5. The most recent meeting, on 14 March 2026, finished Middlesbrough 1:1 Bristol City. On average these meetings produce 2.6 goals.
Form
Middlesbrough: last five matches — W-D-W-D-W.
- 9 matches unbeaten · at home
- 6 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · at home
Bristol City: last five matches — L-W-D-D-W.
- 8 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · away
- 4 matches unbeaten · away
- 3 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · away
Table: Middlesbrough — 2, Bristol City — 17 (of 24).
Home and away record
Middlesbrough at home and Bristol City away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Middlesbrough | Bristol City | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 54 | 54 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 28-15-11 | 15-20-19 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.9 | 1.4 |
Head to head
24 meetings in our database: Middlesbrough won 5, 5 draws, Bristol City won 14. Per match: 2.6 goals.
- 14.03.2026: Middlesbrough 1:1 Bristol City
- 20.12.2025: Bristol City 2:0 Middlesbrough
- 21.02.2025: Bristol City 2:1 Middlesbrough
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Middlesbrough is the more likely winner in our model: 68%, draw 19%.
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 46% of Middlesbrough’s home matches and 46% of Bristol City’s away matches over three seasons.
- Our model expects more corners from Middlesbrough: 7.2 against 3.7 for Bristol City.
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.9 corners in the match: Middlesbrough 7.2, Bristol City 3.7. In a typical match of this competition — 10.2. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 65% (typical match — 57%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 10.5 — 53%, typical match 44%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.6 yellow cards: Middlesbrough 1.6, Bristol City 2.0; typical match of the competition — 3.8. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 30% (typical match — 33%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 3.5 — 51%, typical match 48%.
Result
Our model: Middlesbrough win 68%, draw 19%, Bristol City win 12%. Over 2.5 goals — 54%, both teams to score — 47%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Middlesbrough | Bristol City | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 52% | 28% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 46% |
| Both teams score | 48% | 56% |
| Total corners per match | 11.2 | 10.0 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 65% | 54% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.4 | 3.6 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 28% | 30% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 9.5 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 3.5 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.