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Lincoln vs Wrexham: prediction and statistics
England · Championship · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Before kick-off
Lincoln host Wrexham in Championship on 21 November 2026. In the table there is clear daylight between them: Wrexham are 15th of 24, Lincoln 21st — a gap of 6 places.
Results have gone against Lincoln recently — 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats from the last 5 games. The last 5 games brought Wrexham no victory — 2 draws and 3 defeats.
Home matches have been a struggle for Lincoln (2024/25–2026/27) — 1 win, 2 draws and 4 defeats in 7 games, scoring 1.1 and conceding 2.3 on average. Away from home Wrexham have 10 wins, 10 draws and 10 defeats in 30 matches, scoring 1.1 and conceding 1.3 per game.
The 14 previous meetings are fairly balanced — Lincoln 5, Wrexham 6, draws 3. Last time out (3 May 2025) it ended Lincoln 0:2 Wrexham. On average these meetings produce 2.4 goals.
Form
Lincoln: last five matches — D-L-L-W-L.
- 4 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · at home
- 3 losses in a row · all competitions
- 3 matches without a win · all competitions
Wrexham: last five matches — D-L-D-L-L.
- 5 matches without a win · away
- 4 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row under 9.5 corners · all competitions
Table: Lincoln — 21, Wrexham — 15 (of 24).
Home and away record
Lincoln at home and Wrexham away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Lincoln | Wrexham | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 7 | 30 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 1-2-4 | 10-10-10 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.3 | 1.3 |
Head to head
14 meetings in our database: Lincoln won 5, 3 draws, Wrexham won 6. Per match: 2.4 goals.
- 03.05.2025: Lincoln 0:2 Wrexham
- 26.11.2024: Wrexham 1:0 Lincoln
- 29.11.2016: Lincoln 1:0 Wrexham
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Wrexham should win the corner count: 6.5 expected against 3.5 for Lincoln.
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 71% of Lincoln home games and 40% of Wrexham away games.
- Our model sees an open game: Lincoln 33%, draw 25%, Wrexham 42%.
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.0 corners in the match: Lincoln 3.5, Wrexham 6.5. In a typical match of this competition — 10.2. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 54% (typical match — 57%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 10.5 — 59%, typical match 56%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.0 yellow cards: Lincoln 2.0, Wrexham 1.9; typical match of the competition — 3.8. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 36% (typical match — 33%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 56%, typical match 52%.
Result
Our model: Lincoln win 33%, draw 25%, Wrexham win 42%. Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 56%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Lincoln | Wrexham | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 14% | 33% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 40% |
| Both teams score | 71% | 50% |
| Total corners per match | 9.0 | 9.9 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 57% | 50% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.4 | 3.5 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 29% | 30% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 6.5 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 0.7 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.