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Norwich vs Cardiff: prediction and statistics
England · Championship · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Before kick-off
Championship, 21 November 2026: Norwich are at home to Cardiff. They are neighbours in the table: Norwich are 12th and Cardiff 14th of 24.
An uneven run for Norwich: 2 wins and 3 defeats from the last 5 games. Cardiff are still looking for a win: 1 draw and 4 defeats in the last 5 matches. On points from those games the gap is clear: 6 for Norwich against 1 for Cardiff.
At home (2024/25–2026/27) Norwich have 22 wins, 11 draws and 20 defeats in 53 matches, averaging 1.7 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. Trips have rarely paid off for Cardiff — 2 wins, 13 draws and 15 defeats in 30 away matches, scoring 1.0 and conceding 2.0 on average. Goals are rarely in short supply in these samples: 3.1 per game in home matches of Norwich and 3.0 in away matches of Cardiff.
Head to head, Norwich have the upper hand: 12 wins in 18 meetings with Cardiff in the Xpect database. The most recent meeting, on 25 August 2026, finished Cardiff 1:2 Norwich. On average these meetings produce 3.3 goals.
Form
Norwich: last five matches — W-L-L-L-W.
- 4 wins in a row · all competitions
- 4 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
Cardiff: last five matches — L-L-L-D-L.
- 7 matches without a win · away
- 3 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · away
Table: Norwich — 12, Cardiff — 14 (of 24).
Home and away record
Norwich at home and Cardiff away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Norwich | Cardiff | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 53 | 30 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 22-11-20 | 2-13-15 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.7 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.4 | 2.0 |
Head to head
18 meetings in our database: Norwich won 12, 1 draws, Cardiff won 5. Per match: 3.3 goals.
- 25.08.2026: Cardiff 1:2 Norwich
- 03.05.2025: Norwich 4:2 Cardiff
- 02.11.2024: Cardiff 2:1 Norwich
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Head to head favours Norwich: 12 wins in 18 meetings with Cardiff.
- Our model expects more corners from Norwich: 6.5 against 3.8 for Cardiff.
- Norwich is the more likely winner in our model: 64%, draw 18%.
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 55% of Norwich’s home matches and 60% of Cardiff’s away matches over three seasons.
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.2 corners in the match: Norwich 6.5, Cardiff 3.8. In a typical match of this competition — 10.2. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 57% (typical match — 57%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 57%, typical match 57%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.0 yellow cards: Norwich 1.9, Cardiff 2.1; typical match of the competition — 3.8. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 36% (typical match — 33%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 56%, typical match 52%.
Result
Our model: Norwich win 64%, draw 18%, Cardiff win 17%. Over 2.5 goals — 69%, both teams to score — 62%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Norwich | Cardiff | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 42% | 7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 60% |
| Both teams score | 68% | 67% |
| Total corners per match | 9.7 | 9.8 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 55% | 50% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.9 | 3.7 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 36% | 40% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 11.3 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 3.9 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.