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Stoke City vs Birmingham: prediction and statistics
England · Championship · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Stoke City · Birmingham
Before kick-off
Championship, 21 November 2026: Stoke City are at home to Birmingham. They are neighbours in the table: Stoke City are 3rd and Birmingham 1st of 24. Both sides are in the top three.
Recent results of Stoke City are mostly positive — 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat from 5 games. Birmingham have been solid lately: 3 wins and 2 defeats in the last 5 matches. In points that is almost level: 10 against 9.
At home (2024/25–2026/27) Stoke City have 21 wins, 16 draws and 16 defeats in 53 matches, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 1.1 conceded. The away record of Birmingham: 9 wins, 6 draws and 15 defeats in 30 matches, with 0.9 goals scored and 1.3 conceded on average.
Head to head there is no clear master over 19 meetings — wins: Stoke City 4, Birmingham 8; draws: 7. The most recent meeting, on 24 January 2026, finished Birmingham 1:1 Stoke City. On average these meetings produce 2.2 goals.
Form
Stoke City: last five matches — W-W-L-D-W.
- 5 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · at home
- 3 wins in a row · all competitions
Birmingham: last five matches — L-W-W-L-W.
- 3 wins in a row · all competitions
- 3 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
Table: Stoke City — 3, Birmingham — 1 (of 24).
Home and away record
Stoke City at home and Birmingham away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Stoke City | Birmingham | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 53 | 30 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 21-16-16 | 9-6-15 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.4 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.1 | 1.3 |
Head to head
19 meetings in our database: Stoke City won 4, 7 draws, Birmingham won 8. Per match: 2.2 goals.
- 24.01.2026: Birmingham 1:1 Stoke City
- 13.09.2025: Stoke City 1:0 Birmingham
- 20.01.2024: Stoke City 1:2 Birmingham
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- No clear favourite in our model: 32% – 26% – 43%.
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 49% of Stoke City’s home matches and 47% of Birmingham’s away matches over three seasons.
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.1 corners in the match: Stoke City 4.9, Birmingham 5.2. In a typical match of this competition — 10.2. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 56% (typical match — 57%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 10.5 — 57%, typical match 56%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.0 yellow cards: Stoke City 1.8, Birmingham 2.1; typical match of the competition — 3.8. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 36% (typical match — 33%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 56%, typical match 52%.
Result
Our model: Stoke City win 32%, draw 26%, Birmingham win 43%. Over 2.5 goals — 49%, both teams to score — 53%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Stoke City | Birmingham | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 40% | 30% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 47% |
| Both teams score | 55% | 50% |
| Total corners per match | 10.3 | 9.6 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 49% | 47% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.1 | 3.6 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 32% | 27% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 10.8 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 3.3 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.