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Swansea vs West Brom: prediction and statistics
England · Championship · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Swansea · West Brom
Before kick-off
Swansea host West Brom in Championship on 21 November 2026. Very little separates them in the standings — Swansea are 7th, West Brom 6th in a table of 24.
Swansea have been solid lately: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in the last 5 matches. Recent results of West Brom are mostly positive — 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat from 5 games. Measured in points the two runs are close — 10 and 10.
The home record of Swansea (2024/25–2026/27) is balanced: 25 wins, 14 draws and 14 defeats in 53 matches, 1.5 scored and 1.0 conceded per game. Away from home West Brom have 13 wins, 16 draws and 24 defeats in 53 matches, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.3 per game.
The 29 previous meetings are fairly balanced — Swansea 14, West Brom 11, draws 4. Last time out (11 January 2026) it ended Swansea 7:8 West Brom. On average these meetings produce 3.2 goals.
Form
Swansea: last five matches — D-W-W-L-W.
- 14 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · at home
- 7 matches in a row under 9.5 corners · at home
- 4 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
West Brom: last five matches — W-L-W-D-W.
- 6 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · away
- 6 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · away
- 6 matches unbeaten · all competitions
Table: Swansea — 7, West Brom — 6 (of 24).
Home and away record
Swansea at home and West Brom away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Swansea | West Brom | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 53 | 53 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 25-14-14 | 13-16-24 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.0 | 1.3 |
Head to head
29 meetings in our database: Swansea won 14, 4 draws, West Brom won 11. Per match: 3.2 goals.
- 11.01.2026: Swansea 7:8 West Brom
- 01.01.2026: Swansea 1:0 West Brom
- 29.11.2025: West Brom 3:2 Swansea
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 47% of Swansea home games and 45% of West Brom away games.
- Our model sees an open game: Swansea 38%, draw 26%, West Brom 36%.
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.0 corners in the match: Swansea 5.0, West Brom 5.0. In a typical match of this competition — 10.2. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 54% (typical match — 57%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 10.5 — 58%, typical match 56%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.7 yellow cards: Swansea 1.6, West Brom 2.1; typical match of the competition — 3.8. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 32% (typical match — 33%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 68%, typical match 67%.
Result
Our model: Swansea win 38%, draw 26%, West Brom win 36%. Over 2.5 goals — 49%, both teams to score — 53%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Swansea | West Brom | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 47% | 25% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 45% |
| Both teams score | 47% | 60% |
| Total corners per match | 9.2 | 9.9 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 42% | 47% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.0 | 3.1 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 38% | 28% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 9.5 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 3.6 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.