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Sheffield Utd vs Watford: prediction and statistics
England · Championship · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Sheffield Utd · Watford
Before kick-off
Sheffield Utd host Watford in Championship on 21 November 2026. In the table there is clear daylight between them: Sheffield Utd are 10th of 24, Watford 20th — a gap of 10 places.
Sheffield Utd have blown hot and cold: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in the last 5 matches. The last 5 games brought Watford no victory — 5 defeats. Counted in points, Sheffield Utd took 7 from that stretch and Watford only 0.
The home record of Sheffield Utd (2024/25–2026/27) is balanced: 28 wins, 10 draws and 17 defeats in 55 matches, 1.5 scored and 1.1 conceded per game. Watford find it hard on the road: 8 wins, 14 draws and 31 defeats in 53 away matches, 1.0 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per game.
History favours Sheffield Utd — 7 wins from 10 meetings with Watford. Last time out (18 April 2026) it ended Watford 0:2 Sheffield Utd. On average these meetings produce 1.3 goals.
Form
Sheffield Utd: last five matches — L-L-W-D-W.
- 3 matches unbeaten · at home
- 3 matches in a row under 9.5 corners · all competitions
Watford: last five matches — L-L-L-L-L.
- 15 matches without a win · away
- 6 losses in a row · away
- 4 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · all competitions
Table: Sheffield Utd — 10, Watford — 20 (of 24).
Home and away record
Sheffield Utd at home and Watford away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Sheffield Utd | Watford | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 55 | 53 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 28-10-17 | 8-14-31 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.1 | 1.7 |
Head to head
10 meetings in our database: Sheffield Utd won 7, 2 draws, Watford won 1. Per match: 1.3 goals.
- 18.04.2026: Watford 0:2 Sheffield Utd
- 18.10.2025: Sheffield Utd 1:0 Watford
- 04.01.2025: Watford 1:2 Sheffield Utd
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Sheffield Utd should win the corner count: 6.0 expected against 4.1 for Watford.
- Sheffield Utd has won 7 of the last 10 meetings with Watford.
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 53% of Sheffield Utd home games and 53% of Watford away games.
- Our model makes Sheffield Utd the favourite at 62%; a draw is 22%.
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.1 corners in the match: Sheffield Utd 6.0, Watford 4.1. In a typical match of this competition — 10.2. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 56% (typical match — 57%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 10.5 — 57%, typical match 56%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 4.8 yellow cards: Sheffield Utd 2.1, Watford 2.8; typical match of the competition — 3.8. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 53% (typical match — 33%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 4.5 — 53%, typical match 33%.
Result
Our model: Sheffield Utd win 62%, draw 22%, Watford win 17%. Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 49%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Sheffield Utd | Watford | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 51% | 15% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 53% |
| Both teams score | 51% | 60% |
| Total corners per match | 10.9 | 10.1 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 66% | 57% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.0 | 4.8 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 42% | 53% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 10.2 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 4.5 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.