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Millwall vs QPR: prediction and statistics
England · Championship · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Before kick-off
Millwall host QPR in Championship on 21 November 2026. In the table there is clear daylight between them: QPR are 8th of 24, Millwall 16th — a gap of 8 places.
Millwall have blown hot and cold: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in the last 5 matches. The last 5 games brought QPR no victory — 3 draws and 2 defeats.
The home record of Millwall (2024/25–2026/27) is balanced: 28 wins, 9 draws and 17 defeats in 54 matches, 1.4 scored and 1.0 conceded per game. Away from home QPR have 15 wins, 16 draws and 22 defeats in 53 matches, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.4 per game.
The 21 previous meetings are fairly balanced — Millwall 7, QPR 6, draws 8. Last time out (8 August 2026) it ended QPR 1:1 Millwall. On average these meetings produce 2.6 goals.
Form
Millwall: last five matches — L-D-L-D-W.
- 5 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row over 4.5 yellow cards · at home
QPR: last five matches — D-D-D-L-L.
- 5 matches without a win · away
- 3 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
Table: Millwall — 16, QPR — 8 (of 24).
Home and away record
Millwall at home and QPR away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Millwall | QPR | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 54 | 53 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 28-9-17 | 15-16-22 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.0 | 1.4 |
Head to head
21 meetings in our database: Millwall won 7, 8 draws, QPR won 6. Per match: 2.6 goals.
- 08.08.2026: QPR 1:1 Millwall
- 18.04.2026: Millwall 2:0 QPR
- 18.10.2025: QPR 1:2 Millwall
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 46% of Millwall home games and 47% of QPR away games.
- Our model sees an open game: Millwall 44%, draw 25%, QPR 31%.
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.5 corners in the match: Millwall 5.1, QPR 5.4. In a typical match of this competition — 10.2. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 60% (typical match — 57%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 60%, typical match 57%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.9 yellow cards: Millwall 1.7, QPR 2.2; typical match of the competition — 3.8. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 34% (typical match — 33%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 54%, typical match 52%.
Result
Our model: Millwall win 44%, draw 25%, QPR win 31%. Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 56%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Millwall | QPR | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 52% | 28% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 47% |
| Both teams score | 39% | 55% |
| Total corners per match | 10.7 | 10.7 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 63% | 51% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.4 | 3.7 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 22% | 32% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 9.9 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 3.3 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.