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Southampton vs Derby: prediction and statistics
England · Championship · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Southampton · Derby
Before kick-off
Southampton host Derby in Championship on 21 November 2026. In the table there is clear daylight between them: Southampton are 4th of 24, Derby 23rd — a gap of 19 places. Derby are fighting at the wrong end of the table.
Southampton arrive in excellent form: 4 wins and 1 draw in the last 5 matches. The last 5 games brought Derby no victory — 2 draws and 3 defeats. Counted in points, Southampton took 13 from that stretch and Derby only 2.
Home advantage matters here: Southampton have 18 wins, 10 draws and 3 defeats in 31 home matches (2024/25–2026/27), scoring 1.9 and conceding 0.8 per game. Away from home Derby have 15 wins, 11 draws and 27 defeats in 53 matches, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.6 per game.
Draws are a feature of this pairing — 8 in 18 meetings. Last time out (11 April 2026) it ended Southampton 2:1 Derby. On average these meetings produce 2.7 goals.
Form
Southampton: last five matches — W-W-W-D-W.
- 6 matches unbeaten · at home
Derby: last five matches — L-D-L-D-L.
- 5 matches without a win · away
- 4 matches in a row both teams scored · away
- 3 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
Table: Southampton — 4, Derby — 23 (of 24).
Home and away record
Southampton at home and Derby away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Southampton | Derby | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 31 | 53 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 18-10-3 | 15-11-27 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.9 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.8 | 1.6 |
Head to head
18 meetings in our database: Southampton won 5, 8 draws, Derby won 5. Per match: 2.7 goals.
- 11.04.2026: Southampton 2:1 Derby
- 04.10.2025: Derby 1:1 Southampton
- 16.01.2019: Southampton 2:2 Derby
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 55% of Southampton home games and 57% of Derby away games.
- Our model makes Southampton the favourite at 75%; a draw is 16%.
- Southampton should win the corner count: 6.0 expected against 4.2 for Derby.
- 8 of the 18 meetings between these teams ended in a draw.
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.3 corners in the match: Southampton 6.0, Derby 4.2. In a typical match of this competition — 10.2. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 58% (typical match — 57%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 58%, typical match 57%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.3 yellow cards: Southampton 1.6, Derby 2.7; typical match of the competition — 3.8. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 43% (typical match — 33%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 62%, typical match 52%.
Result
Our model: Southampton win 75%, draw 16%, Derby win 9%. Over 2.5 goals — 60%, both teams to score — 46%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Southampton | Derby | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 58% | 28% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 57% |
| Both teams score | 58% | 64% |
| Total corners per match | 10.7 | 10.0 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 68% | 51% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.1 | 3.9 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 29% | 30% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 10.5 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 2.5 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.