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Burton Albion vs Luton: prediction and statistics
England · League One · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Burton Albion · Luton
Before kick-off
League One, 21 November 2026: Burton Albion are at home to Luton. Luton sit 4th in the 24-team table while Burton Albion are 15th, so 11 places separate the two sides.
An uneven run for Burton Albion: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats from the last 5 games. Luton have been solid lately: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in the last 5 matches. In points that is almost level: 7 against 8.
At home (2024/25–2026/27) Burton Albion have 17 wins, 15 draws and 21 defeats in 53 matches, averaging 1.3 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. The away record of Luton: 11 wins, 6 draws and 13 defeats in 30 matches, with 1.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded on average.
Head to head there is no clear master over 6 meetings — wins: Burton Albion 3, Luton 2; draws: 1. The most recent meeting, on 21 February 2026, finished Luton 1:1 Burton Albion. On average these meetings produce 2.0 goals.
Form
Burton Albion: last five matches — L-D-W-W-L.
- 3 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · at home
Luton: last five matches — D-W-L-W-D.
- 11 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · all competitions
- 10 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 6 matches unbeaten · all competitions
Table: Burton Albion — 15, Luton — 4 (of 24).
Home and away record
Burton Albion at home and Luton away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Burton Albion | Luton | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 53 | 30 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 17-15-21 | 11-6-13 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.4 | 1.5 |
Head to head
6 meetings in our database: Burton Albion won 3, 1 draws, Luton won 2. Per match: 2.0 goals.
- 21.02.2026: Luton 1:1 Burton Albion
- 30.08.2025: Burton Albion 0:3 Luton
- 27.04.2019: Burton Albion 2:1 Luton
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Luton is the more likely winner in our model: 56%, draw 23%.
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 59% of Burton Albion’s home matches and 57% of Luton’s away matches over three seasons.
- Our model expects more corners from Luton: 5.7 against 4.4 for Burton Albion.
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.1 corners in the match: Burton Albion 4.4, Luton 5.7. In a typical match of this competition — 10.2. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 56% (typical match — 57%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 10.5 — 57%, typical match 56%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.9 yellow cards: Burton Albion 1.8, Luton 2.1; typical match of the competition — 3.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 35% (typical match — 32%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 55%, typical match 51%.
Result
Our model: Burton Albion win 21%, draw 23%, Luton win 56%. Over 2.5 goals — 54%, both teams to score — 54%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Burton Albion | Luton | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 32% | 37% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 57% |
| Both teams score | 57% | 57% |
| Total corners per match | 9.7 | 9.3 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 49% | 53% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.5 | 3.9 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 34% | 30% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 8.5 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 2.8 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.