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Mansfield Town vs Milton Keynes Dons: prediction and statistics

England · League One · 21 November 2026 · kick-off

Team stats: Mansfield Town · Milton Keynes Dons

Before kick-off

Mansfield Town host Milton Keynes Dons in League One on 21 November 2026. In the standings Mansfield Town are 12th and Milton Keynes Dons 9th out of 24 teams.

Mansfield Town have blown hot and cold: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in the last 5 matches. Recent results of Milton Keynes Dons are mostly positive — 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat from 5 games. Measured in points the two runs are close — 7 and 8.

The home record of Mansfield Town (2024/25–2026/27) is balanced: 20 wins, 14 draws and 18 defeats in 52 matches, 1.5 scored and 1.3 conceded per game. Away from home Milton Keynes Dons have 1 win, 3 draws and 2 defeats in 6 matches, scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.7 per game.

The 4 previous meetings are fairly balanced — Mansfield Town 1, Milton Keynes Dons 2, draws 1. Last time out (13 April 2024) it ended Milton Keynes Dons 1:4 Mansfield Town. On average these meetings produce 2.8 goals.

Form

Mansfield Town: last five matches — W-D-L-W-L.

Milton Keynes Dons: last five matches — D-D-L-W-W.

Table: Mansfield Town — 12, Milton Keynes Dons — 9 (of 24).

Home and away record

Mansfield Town at home and Milton Keynes Dons away, 2024/25–2026/27.

Mansfield TownMilton Keynes Dons
Matches526
Wins · draws · losses20-14-181-3-2
Goals scored per match1.51.2
Goals conceded per match1.31.7

Head to head

4 meetings in our database: Mansfield Town won 1, 1 draws, Milton Keynes Dons won 2. Per match: 2.8 goals.

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Key facts

  • Mansfield Town should win the corner count: 6.0 expected against 4.3 for Milton Keynes Dons.
  • Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 58% of Mansfield Town home games and 50% of Milton Keynes Dons away games.

Corners

57%

Corners over 9.5

Our model expects 10.3 corners in the match: Mansfield Town 6.0, Milton Keynes Dons 4.3. In a typical match of this competition — 10.2. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 57% (typical match — 57%).

This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 57%, typical match 57%.

Yellow cards

72%

Yellow cards under 4.5

Our model expects 3.5 yellow cards: Mansfield Town 1.7, Milton Keynes Dons 1.9; typical match of the competition — 3.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 28% (typical match — 32%).

This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 3.5 — 53%, typical match 49%.

Result

Our model: Mansfield Town win 32%, draw 23%, Milton Keynes Dons win 46%. Over 2.5 goals — 65%, both teams to score — 65%.

Team statistics for three seasons

Mansfield TownMilton Keynes Dons
Win rate38%17%
Over 2.5 goals58%50%
Both teams score60%50%
Total corners per match9.611.7
Over 9.5 corners46%83%
Total yellow cards per match3.44.0
Over 4.5 yellow cards25%33%

Head to head

Corners in their meetings: 6.5 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 5.3 per match on average.

How we calculate

Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.

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