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Cerezo Osaka vs FC Tokyo: prediction and statistics
Japan · J1 League · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Cerezo Osaka · FC Tokyo
Before kick-off
J1 League, 21 November 2026: Cerezo Osaka are at home to FC Tokyo. FC Tokyo sit 1st in the 20-team table while Cerezo Osaka are 11th, so 10 places separate the two sides.
An uneven run for Cerezo Osaka: 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat from the last 5 games. FC Tokyo arrive in excellent form: 4 wins and 1 defeat in the last 5 matches. On points from those games the gap is clear: 12 for FC Tokyo against 6 for Cerezo Osaka.
At home (2025–2027) Cerezo Osaka have 14 wins, 14 draws and 8 defeats in 36 matches, averaging 1.5 goals scored and 1.1 conceded. FC Tokyo travel well: 14 wins, 13 draws and 8 defeats in 35 away matches, with 1.4 goals scored and 0.9 conceded per game.
Head to head there is no clear master over 32 meetings — wins: Cerezo Osaka 11, FC Tokyo 11; draws: 10. The most recent meeting, on 6 June 2026, finished FC Tokyo 1:3 Cerezo Osaka. On average these meetings produce 2.4 goals.
Form
Cerezo Osaka: last five matches — D-W-D-L-D.
- 3 matches without a win · at home
- 3 matches in a row under 9.5 corners · at home
FC Tokyo: last five matches — W-W-L-W-W.
- 12 matches in a row without both teams scoring · all competitions
- 5 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · away
Table: Cerezo Osaka — 11, FC Tokyo — 1 (of 20).
Home and away record
Cerezo Osaka at home and FC Tokyo away, 2025–2027.
| Cerezo Osaka | FC Tokyo | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 36 | 35 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 14-14-8 | 14-13-8 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.1 | 0.9 |
Head to head
32 meetings in our database: Cerezo Osaka won 11, 10 draws, FC Tokyo won 11. Per match: 2.4 goals.
- 06.06.2026: FC Tokyo 1:3 Cerezo Osaka
- 30.05.2026: Cerezo Osaka 2:2 FC Tokyo
- 06.08.2025: FC Tokyo 2:1 Cerezo Osaka
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- FC Tokyo is the more likely winner in our model: 67%, draw 19%.
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 47% of Cerezo Osaka’s home matches and 46% of FC Tokyo’s away matches over three seasons.
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 9.8 corners in the match: Cerezo Osaka 4.6, FC Tokyo 5.1. In a typical match of this competition — 9.6. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 51% (typical match — 49%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 51%, typical match 49%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.0 yellow cards: Cerezo Osaka 1.5, FC Tokyo 1.5; typical match of the competition — 2.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 18% (typical match — 14%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 82%, typical match 86%.
Result
Our model: Cerezo Osaka win 14%, draw 19%, FC Tokyo win 67%. Over 2.5 goals — 57%, both teams to score — 51%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Cerezo Osaka | FC Tokyo | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 39% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 46% |
| Both teams score | 67% | 43% |
| Total corners per match | 11.4 | 9.8 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 69% | 49% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 2.8 | 2.3 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 11% | 6% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 9.7 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 2.4 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.