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Tokyo Verdy vs Nagoya Grampus: prediction and statistics

Japan · J1 League · 21 November 2026 · kick-off

Team stats: Tokyo Verdy · Nagoya Grampus

Before kick-off

J1 League, 21 November 2026: Tokyo Verdy are at home to Nagoya Grampus. They are neighbours in the table: Tokyo Verdy are 14th and Nagoya Grampus 13th of 20.

Tokyo Verdy are in a difficult spell: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in the last 5 matches. Nagoya Grampus have been solid lately: 3 wins and 2 defeats in the last 5 matches. On points from those games the gap is clear: 9 for Nagoya Grampus against 4 for Tokyo Verdy.

At home (2025–2027) Tokyo Verdy have 14 wins, 7 draws and 16 defeats in 37 matches, averaging 0.9 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. The away record of Nagoya Grampus: 8 wins, 9 draws and 19 defeats in 36 matches, with 1.1 goals scored and 1.7 conceded on average.

Head to head there is no clear master over 7 meetings — wins: Tokyo Verdy 3, Nagoya Grampus 3; draws: 1. The most recent meeting, on 13 August 2025, finished Tokyo Verdy 1:2 Nagoya Grampus. On average these meetings produce 2.3 goals.

Form

Tokyo Verdy: last five matches — L-D-L-L-W.

Nagoya Grampus: last five matches — L-W-W-W-L.

Table: Tokyo Verdy — 14, Nagoya Grampus — 13 (of 20).

Home and away record

Tokyo Verdy at home and Nagoya Grampus away, 2025–2027.

Tokyo VerdyNagoya Grampus
Matches3736
Wins · draws · losses14-7-168-9-19
Goals scored per match0.91.1
Goals conceded per match1.41.7

Head to head

7 meetings in our database: Tokyo Verdy won 3, 1 draws, Nagoya Grampus won 3. Per match: 2.3 goals.

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Key facts

  • Over 2.5 goals happened in 35% of Tokyo Verdy’s home matches and 58% of Nagoya Grampus’s away matches over three seasons.
  • Our model expects more corners from Nagoya Grampus: 5.5 against 3.9 for Tokyo Verdy.
  • No clear favourite in our model: 34% – 25% – 41%.

Corners

53%

Corners under 9.5

Our model expects 9.5 corners in the match: Tokyo Verdy 3.9, Nagoya Grampus 5.5. In a typical match of this competition — 9.6. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 47% (typical match — 49%).

This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 53%, typical match 51%.

Yellow cards

83%

Yellow cards under 4.5

Our model expects 2.9 yellow cards: Tokyo Verdy 1.6, Nagoya Grampus 1.3; typical match of the competition — 2.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 17% (typical match — 14%).

This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 83%, typical match 86%.

Result

Our model: Tokyo Verdy win 34%, draw 25%, Nagoya Grampus win 41%. Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 56%.

Team statistics for three seasons

Tokyo VerdyNagoya Grampus
Win rate38%22%
Over 2.5 goals35%58%
Both teams score30%61%
Total corners per match9.69.2
Over 9.5 corners46%42%
Total yellow cards per match2.52.7
Over 4.5 yellow cards3%11%

Head to head

Corners in their meetings: 12.0 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 1.6 per match on average.

How we calculate

Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.

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