Xpect
Kyoto Sanga vs Urawa: prediction and statistics
Japan · J1 League · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Kyoto Sanga · Urawa
Before kick-off
Kyoto Sanga host Urawa in J1 League on 21 November 2026. In the standings Kyoto Sanga are 12th and Urawa 9th out of 20 teams.
Kyoto Sanga have been solid lately: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in the last 5 matches. Recent results of Urawa are mostly positive — 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat from 5 games. Measured in points the two runs are close — 10 and 10.
The home record of Kyoto Sanga (2025–2027) is balanced: 14 wins, 10 draws and 11 defeats in 35 matches, 1.5 scored and 1.3 conceded per game. Away from home Urawa have 10 wins, 11 draws and 16 defeats in 37 matches, scoring 1.1 and conceding 1.5 per game.
Draws are a feature of this pairing — 4 in 10 meetings. Last time out (20 January 2026) it ended Urawa 2:1 Kyoto Sanga. On average these meetings produce 1.9 goals.
Form
Kyoto Sanga: last five matches — L-W-D-W-W.
- 6 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row without both teams scoring · all competitions
Urawa: last five matches — W-W-W-L-D.
- 3 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · away
- 3 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
Table: Kyoto Sanga — 12, Urawa — 9 (of 20).
Home and away record
Kyoto Sanga at home and Urawa away, 2025–2027.
| Kyoto Sanga | Urawa | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 35 | 37 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 14-10-11 | 10-11-16 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.3 | 1.5 |
Head to head
10 meetings in our database: Kyoto Sanga won 1, 4 draws, Urawa won 5. Per match: 1.9 goals.
- 20.01.2026: Urawa 2:1 Kyoto Sanga
- 16.04.2025: Urawa 2:1 Kyoto Sanga
- 22.02.2025: Kyoto Sanga 1:1 Urawa
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 46% of Kyoto Sanga home games and 43% of Urawa away games.
- Our model sees an open game: Kyoto Sanga 42%, draw 24%, Urawa 34%.
- Urawa should win the corner count: 5.5 expected against 4.2 for Kyoto Sanga.
- 4 of the 10 meetings between these teams ended in a draw.
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 9.7 corners in the match: Kyoto Sanga 4.2, Urawa 5.5. In a typical match of this competition — 9.6. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 51% (typical match — 49%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 51%, typical match 49%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.1 yellow cards: Kyoto Sanga 1.9, Urawa 1.2; typical match of the competition — 2.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 20% (typical match — 14%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 80%, typical match 86%.
Result
Our model: Kyoto Sanga win 42%, draw 24%, Urawa win 34%. Over 2.5 goals — 59%, both teams to score — 61%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Kyoto Sanga | Urawa | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 40% | 27% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 43% |
| Both teams score | 60% | 49% |
| Total corners per match | 10.2 | 9.9 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 54% | 54% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.1 | 2.3 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 20% | 8% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 10.0 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 1.8 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.