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Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Yokohama F. Marinos: prediction and statistics
Japan · J1 League · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Sanfrecce Hiroshima · Yokohama F. Marinos
Before kick-off
Sanfrecce Hiroshima host Yokohama F. Marinos in J1 League on 21 November 2026. In the standings Sanfrecce Hiroshima are 3rd and Yokohama F. Marinos 7th out of 20 teams. Sanfrecce Hiroshima are in the top three.
Sanfrecce Hiroshima arrive in excellent form: 5 wins in the last 5 matches. No defeats for Yokohama F. Marinos in the last 5 games (1 win and 4 draws). Counted in points, Sanfrecce Hiroshima took 15 from that stretch and Yokohama F. Marinos only 7.
Home advantage matters here: Sanfrecce Hiroshima have 20 wins, 8 draws and 7 defeats in 35 home matches (2025–2027), scoring 1.6 and conceding 0.7 per game. Away from home Yokohama F. Marinos have 11 wins, 7 draws and 18 defeats in 36 matches, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.3 per game.
The 36 previous meetings are fairly balanced — Sanfrecce Hiroshima 12, Yokohama F. Marinos 17, draws 7. Last time out (28 October 2026) it ended Yokohama F. Marinos 4:3 Sanfrecce Hiroshima. On average these meetings produce 3.2 goals.
Form
Sanfrecce Hiroshima: last five matches — W-W-W-W-W.
- 15 matches unbeaten · at home
- 8 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · at home
- 6 wins in a row · at home
Yokohama F. Marinos: last five matches — D-W-D-D-D.
- 6 matches unbeaten · away
- 6 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
- 3 matches without a win · away
Table: Sanfrecce Hiroshima — 3, Yokohama F. Marinos — 7 (of 20).
Home and away record
Sanfrecce Hiroshima at home and Yokohama F. Marinos away, 2025–2027.
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima | Yokohama F. Marinos | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 35 | 36 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 20-8-7 | 11-7-18 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.7 | 1.3 |
Head to head
36 meetings in our database: Sanfrecce Hiroshima won 12, 7 draws, Yokohama F. Marinos won 17. Per match: 3.2 goals.
- 28.10.2026: Yokohama F. Marinos 4:3 Sanfrecce Hiroshima
- 25.10.2025: Yokohama F. Marinos 3:0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima
- 23.02.2025: Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1:0 Yokohama F. Marinos
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima should win the corner count: 7.2 expected against 2.2 for Yokohama F. Marinos.
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 49% of Sanfrecce Hiroshima home games and 44% of Yokohama F. Marinos away games.
- Our model makes Sanfrecce Hiroshima the favourite at 61%; a draw is 21%.
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.5 corners in the match: Sanfrecce Hiroshima 7.2, Yokohama F. Marinos 2.2. In a typical match of this competition — 9.6. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 47% (typical match — 49%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 53%, typical match 51%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 2.7 yellow cards: Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1.2, Yokohama F. Marinos 1.5; typical match of the competition — 2.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 14% (typical match — 14%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 86%, typical match 86%.
Result
Our model: Sanfrecce Hiroshima win 61%, draw 21%, Yokohama F. Marinos win 18%. Over 2.5 goals — 58%, both teams to score — 55%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima | Yokohama F. Marinos | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 57% | 31% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 44% |
| Both teams score | 51% | 39% |
| Total corners per match | 9.2 | 9.6 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 46% | 50% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 2.5 | 2.6 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 11% | 17% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 9.1 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 2.3 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.