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Kawasaki Frontale vs Avispa Fukuoka: prediction and statistics
Japan · J1 League · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Kawasaki Frontale · Avispa Fukuoka
Before kick-off
J1 League, 21 November 2026: Kawasaki Frontale are at home to Avispa Fukuoka. Kawasaki Frontale sit 8th in the 20-team table while Avispa Fukuoka are 20th, so 12 places separate the two sides. Avispa Fukuoka are in the bottom three.
Recent results of Kawasaki Frontale are mostly positive — 3 wins and 2 defeats from 5 games. Results have gone against Avispa Fukuoka recently — 1 win and 4 defeats from the last 5 games. On points from those games the gap is clear: 9 for Kawasaki Frontale against 3 for Avispa Fukuoka.
At home (2025–2027) Kawasaki Frontale have 16 wins, 10 draws and 10 defeats in 36 matches, averaging 2.0 goals scored and 1.8 conceded. The away record of Avispa Fukuoka: 8 wins, 8 draws and 19 defeats in 35 matches, with 0.8 goals scored and 1.3 conceded on average.
Head to head, Kawasaki Frontale have the upper hand: 9 wins in 14 meetings with Avispa Fukuoka in the Xpect database. The most recent meeting, on 9 August 2025, finished Kawasaki Frontale 2:5 Avispa Fukuoka. On average these meetings produce 3.8 goals.
Form
Kawasaki Frontale: last five matches — W-L-W-W-L.
- 4 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · at home
- 4 matches in a row both teams scored · at home
- 3 losses in a row · all competitions
Avispa Fukuoka: last five matches — W-L-L-L-L.
- 6 matches without a win · all competitions
- 6 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 5 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · away
Table: Kawasaki Frontale — 8, Avispa Fukuoka — 20 (of 20).
Home and away record
Kawasaki Frontale at home and Avispa Fukuoka away, 2025–2027.
| Kawasaki Frontale | Avispa Fukuoka | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 36 | 35 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 16-10-10 | 8-8-19 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.8 | 1.3 |
Head to head
14 meetings in our database: Kawasaki Frontale won 9, 2 draws, Avispa Fukuoka won 3. Per match: 3.8 goals.
- 09.08.2025: Kawasaki Frontale 2:5 Avispa Fukuoka
- 26.02.2025: Avispa Fukuoka 1:2 Kawasaki Frontale
- 08.12.2024: Kawasaki Frontale 3:1 Avispa Fukuoka
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 72% of Kawasaki Frontale’s home matches and 40% of Avispa Fukuoka’s away matches over three seasons.
- Head to head favours Kawasaki Frontale: 9 wins in 14 meetings with Avispa Fukuoka.
- Kawasaki Frontale is the more likely winner in our model: 68%, draw 20%.
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.0 corners in the match: Kawasaki Frontale 4.5, Avispa Fukuoka 4.4. In a typical match of this competition — 9.6. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 41% (typical match — 49%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 59%, typical match 51%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.1 yellow cards: Kawasaki Frontale 1.2, Avispa Fukuoka 2.0; typical match of the competition — 2.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 21% (typical match — 14%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 79%, typical match 86%.
Result
Our model: Kawasaki Frontale win 68%, draw 20%, Avispa Fukuoka win 13%. Over 2.5 goals — 54%, both teams to score — 47%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Kawasaki Frontale | Avispa Fukuoka | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 44% | 23% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 72% | 40% |
| Both teams score | 72% | 43% |
| Total corners per match | 9.5 | 8.2 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 44% | 34% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 2.9 | 3.1 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 14% | 29% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 9.5 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 2.4 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.