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Machida Zelvia vs V-varen Nagasaki: prediction and statistics
Japan · J1 League · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Machida Zelvia · V-varen Nagasaki
Before kick-off
J1 League, 21 November 2026: Machida Zelvia are at home to V-varen Nagasaki. Machida Zelvia sit 4th in the 20-team table while V-varen Nagasaki are 16th, so 12 places separate the two sides.
No defeats for Machida Zelvia in the last 5 games (2 wins and 3 draws). V-varen Nagasaki are still looking for a win: 2 draws and 3 defeats in the last 5 matches. On points from those games the gap is clear: 9 for Machida Zelvia against 2 for V-varen Nagasaki.
At home (2025–2027) Machida Zelvia have 16 wins, 10 draws and 10 defeats in 36 matches, averaging 1.3 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. Trips have rarely paid off for V-varen Nagasaki — 4 wins, 2 draws and 11 defeats in 17 away matches, scoring 0.9 and conceding 1.6 on average.
Head to head there is no clear master over 14 meetings — wins: Machida Zelvia 4, V-varen Nagasaki 5; draws: 5. The most recent meeting, on 23 September 2023, finished V-varen Nagasaki 0:6 Machida Zelvia. On average these meetings produce 3.1 goals.
Form
Machida Zelvia: last five matches — D-W-D-W-D.
- 14 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 12 matches unbeaten · all competitions
V-varen Nagasaki: last five matches — L-D-L-L-D.
- 10 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · away
- 6 matches without a win · away
- 4 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · away
Table: Machida Zelvia — 4, V-varen Nagasaki — 16 (of 20).
Home and away record
Machida Zelvia at home and V-varen Nagasaki away, 2025–2027.
| Machida Zelvia | V-varen Nagasaki | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 36 | 17 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 16-10-10 | 4-2-11 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.0 | 1.6 |
Head to head
14 meetings in our database: Machida Zelvia won 4, 5 draws, V-varen Nagasaki won 5. Per match: 3.1 goals.
- 23.09.2023: V-varen Nagasaki 0:6 Machida Zelvia
- 11.06.2023: Machida Zelvia 4:1 V-varen Nagasaki
- 17.07.2022: Machida Zelvia 1:2 V-varen Nagasaki
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Machida Zelvia is the more likely winner in our model: 73%, draw 19%.
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 50% of Machida Zelvia’s home matches and 35% of V-varen Nagasaki’s away matches over three seasons.
- Our model expects more corners from Machida Zelvia: 5.7 against 3.5 for V-varen Nagasaki.
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.3 corners in the match: Machida Zelvia 5.7, V-varen Nagasaki 3.5. In a typical match of this competition — 9.6. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 45% (typical match — 49%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 55%, typical match 51%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 2.3 yellow cards: Machida Zelvia 1.1, V-varen Nagasaki 1.2; typical match of the competition — 2.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 8% (typical match — 14%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 3.5 — 80%, typical match 72%.
Result
Our model: Machida Zelvia win 73%, draw 19%, V-varen Nagasaki win 9%. Over 2.5 goals — 49%, both teams to score — 37%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Machida Zelvia | V-varen Nagasaki | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 44% | 24% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 35% |
| Both teams score | 39% | 47% |
| Total corners per match | 7.7 | 8.8 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 28% | 53% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 8% | 0% |
Head to head
Yellow cards in their meetings: 1.7 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.