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Chapecoense-sc vs Cruzeiro: prediction and statistics
Brazil · Serie A · 22 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Chapecoense-sc · Cruzeiro
Before kick-off
Serie A, 22 November 2026: Chapecoense-sc are at home to Cruzeiro. Cruzeiro sit 3rd in the 20-team table while Chapecoense-sc are 20th, so 17 places separate the two sides. Chapecoense-sc are fighting at the wrong end of the table. Cruzeiro are in the top three.
Chapecoense-sc are in a difficult spell: 1 win and 4 defeats in the last 5 matches. Cruzeiro have been solid lately: 3 wins and 2 defeats in the last 5 matches. On points from those games the gap is clear: 9 for Cruzeiro against 3 for Chapecoense-sc.
Chapecoense-sc have not made their ground a fortress: 3 wins, 5 draws and 9 defeats in 17 home matches (2024–2026), 1.3 goals scored and 2.2 conceded per game. The away record of Cruzeiro: 18 wins, 16 draws and 21 defeats in 55 matches, with 1.1 goals scored and 1.3 conceded on average.
Head to head there is no clear master over 21 meetings — wins: Chapecoense-sc 6, Cruzeiro 9; draws: 6. The most recent meeting, on 5 August 2026, finished Cruzeiro 2:0 Chapecoense-sc. On average these meetings produce 2.0 goals.
Form
Chapecoense-sc: last five matches — L-L-W-L-L.
- 6 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 3 losses in a row · all competitions
- 3 matches without a win · all competitions
Cruzeiro: last five matches — L-W-L-W-W.
- 4 wins in a row · all competitions
- 4 matches unbeaten · all competitions
Table: Chapecoense-sc — 20, Cruzeiro — 3 (of 20).
Home and away record
Chapecoense-sc at home and Cruzeiro away, 2024–2026.
| Chapecoense-sc | Cruzeiro | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 17 | 55 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 3-5-9 | 18-16-21 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.2 | 1.3 |
Head to head
21 meetings in our database: Chapecoense-sc won 6, 6 draws, Cruzeiro won 9. Per match: 2.0 goals.
- 05.08.2026: Cruzeiro 2:0 Chapecoense-sc
- 02.08.2026: Chapecoense-sc 0:0 Cruzeiro
- 24.05.2026: Cruzeiro 2:1 Chapecoense-sc
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Cruzeiro is the more likely winner in our model: 60%, draw 22%.
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 71% of Chapecoense-sc’s home matches and 44% of Cruzeiro’s away matches over three seasons.
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.4 corners in the match: Chapecoense-sc 5.6, Cruzeiro 4.8. In a typical match of this competition — 10.4. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 59% (typical match — 59%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 10.5 — 54%, typical match 53%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.3 yellow cards: Chapecoense-sc 2.2, Cruzeiro 2.1; typical match of the competition — 4.9. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 43% (typical match — 54%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 57%, typical match 46%.
Result
Our model: Chapecoense-sc win 18%, draw 22%, Cruzeiro win 60%. Over 2.5 goals — 51%, both teams to score — 49%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Chapecoense-sc | Cruzeiro | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 18% | 33% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 44% |
| Both teams score | 71% | 44% |
| Total corners per match | 9.8 | 10.3 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 53% | 64% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.8 | 4.9 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 35% | 53% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 11.6 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 4.0 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.