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Cheltenham vs Bristol Rovers: prediction and statistics
England · League Two · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Cheltenham · Bristol Rovers
Before kick-off
Cheltenham host Bristol Rovers in League Two on 21 November 2026. In the table there is clear daylight between them: Cheltenham are 9th of 24, Bristol Rovers 18th — a gap of 9 places.
Cheltenham have been solid lately: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in the last 5 matches. The last 5 games brought Bristol Rovers no victory — 5 defeats. Counted in points, Cheltenham took 10 from that stretch and Bristol Rovers only 0.
The home record of Cheltenham (2024/25–2026/27) is balanced: 24 wins, 11 draws and 18 defeats in 53 matches, 1.4 scored and 1.4 conceded per game. Away from home Bristol Rovers have 8 wins, 4 draws and 18 defeats in 30 matches, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.7 per game.
The 17 previous meetings are fairly balanced — Cheltenham 4, Bristol Rovers 10, draws 3. Last time out (25 April 2026) it ended Bristol Rovers 4:0 Cheltenham. On average these meetings produce 2.5 goals.
Form
Cheltenham: last five matches — L-D-W-W-W.
- 4 matches unbeaten · at home
- 4 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 3 wins in a row · at home
Bristol Rovers: last five matches — L-L-L-L-L.
- 6 losses in a row · away
- 6 matches without a win · away
Table: Cheltenham — 9, Bristol Rovers — 18 (of 24).
Home and away record
Cheltenham at home and Bristol Rovers away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Cheltenham | Bristol Rovers | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 53 | 30 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 24-11-18 | 8-4-18 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.4 | 1.7 |
Head to head
17 meetings in our database: Cheltenham won 4, 3 draws, Bristol Rovers won 10. Per match: 2.5 goals.
- 25.04.2026: Bristol Rovers 4:0 Cheltenham
- 22.11.2025: Cheltenham 1:0 Bristol Rovers
- 07.10.2025: Cheltenham 0:1 Bristol Rovers
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Our model sees an open game: Cheltenham 39%, draw 24%, Bristol Rovers 38%.
- Bristol Rovers should win the corner count: 5.2 expected against 4.0 for Cheltenham.
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 47% of Cheltenham home games and 53% of Bristol Rovers away games.
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.2 corners in the match: Cheltenham 4.0, Bristol Rovers 5.2. In a typical match of this competition — 9.8. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 44% (typical match — 52%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 56%, typical match 48%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.1 yellow cards: Cheltenham 1.9, Bristol Rovers 2.2; typical match of the competition — 3.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 39% (typical match — 32%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 58%, typical match 51%.
Result
Our model: Cheltenham win 39%, draw 24%, Bristol Rovers win 38%. Over 2.5 goals — 61%, both teams to score — 63%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Cheltenham | Bristol Rovers | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 45% | 27% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 53% |
| Both teams score | 59% | 53% |
| Total corners per match | 9.8 | 8.9 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 57% | 30% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.8 | 4.7 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 32% | 60% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 9.2 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 2.5 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.