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Newport County vs Swindon Town: prediction and statistics
England · League Two · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Newport County · Swindon Town
Before kick-off
Newport County host Swindon Town in League Two on 21 November 2026. Very little separates them in the standings — Newport County are 14th, Swindon Town 16th in a table of 24.
Newport County have been solid lately: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in the last 5 matches. Swindon Town are in a difficult spell: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in the last 5 matches. Counted in points, Newport County took 10 from that stretch and Swindon Town only 4.
The home record of Newport County (2024/25–2026/27) is balanced: 20 wins, 12 draws and 21 defeats in 53 matches, 1.3 scored and 1.4 conceded per game. Away from home Swindon Town have 18 wins, 14 draws and 21 defeats in 53 matches, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.4 per game.
The 21 previous meetings are fairly balanced — Newport County 8, Swindon Town 11, draws 2. Last time out (22 September 2026) it ended Swindon Town 0:2 Newport County. On average these meetings produce 2.0 goals.
Form
Newport County: last five matches — W-D-W-L-W.
- 4 matches in a row both teams scored · at home
- 4 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
Swindon Town: last five matches — L-W-D-L-L.
- 26 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
Table: Newport County — 14, Swindon Town — 16 (of 24).
Home and away record
Newport County at home and Swindon Town away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Newport County | Swindon Town | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 53 | 53 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 20-12-21 | 18-14-21 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.4 | 1.4 |
Head to head
21 meetings in our database: Newport County won 8, 2 draws, Swindon Town won 11. Per match: 2.0 goals.
- 22.09.2026: Swindon Town 0:2 Newport County
- 11.02.2026: Swindon Town 2:0 Newport County
- 04.10.2025: Newport County 0:1 Swindon Town
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Newport County should win the corner count: 6.1 expected against 4.2 for Swindon Town.
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 55% of Newport County home games and 55% of Swindon Town away games.
- Our model makes Newport County the favourite at 54%; a draw is 22%.
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.3 corners in the match: Newport County 6.1, Swindon Town 4.2. In a typical match of this competition — 9.8. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 58% (typical match — 52%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 58%, typical match 52%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.6 yellow cards: Newport County 1.4, Swindon Town 2.2; typical match of the competition — 3.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 29% (typical match — 32%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 3.5 — 52%, typical match 49%.
Result
Our model: Newport County win 54%, draw 22%, Swindon Town win 24%. Over 2.5 goals — 60%, both teams to score — 59%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Newport County | Swindon Town | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 38% | 34% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 55% |
| Both teams score | 55% | 51% |
| Total corners per match | 9.8 | 10.4 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 59% | 62% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.1 | 3.2 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 36% | 15% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 10.0 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 3.2 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.