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Northampton vs Rochdale: prediction and statistics
England · League Two · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Northampton · Rochdale
Before kick-off
League Two, 21 November 2026: Northampton are at home to Rochdale. Northampton go into the match 19th of 24 in the table, Rochdale are 22nd. Rochdale are in the bottom three.
Northampton are in a difficult spell: 1 win and 4 defeats in the last 5 matches. Results have gone against Rochdale recently — 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats from the last 5 games. In points that is almost level: 3 against 4.
Northampton have not made their ground a fortress: 2 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats in 7 home matches (2024/25–2026/27), 0.6 goals scored and 0.6 conceded per game. Trips have rarely paid off for Rochdale — 1 win, 2 draws and 4 defeats in 7 away matches, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.9 on average.
This fixture often ends level: 7 of the 16 meetings in the Xpect database were draws. The most recent meeting, on 11 February 2023, finished Rochdale 1:1 Northampton. On average these meetings produce 2.4 goals.
Form
Northampton: last five matches — L-L-W-L-L.
- 7 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 5 matches without a win · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row under 9.5 corners · at home
Rochdale: last five matches — L-D-L-L-W.
- 4 matches in a row both teams scored · away
- 3 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · away
- 3 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · all competitions
Table: Northampton — 19, Rochdale — 22 (of 24).
Home and away record
Northampton at home and Rochdale away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Northampton | Rochdale | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 7 | 7 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 2-2-3 | 1-2-4 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.6 | 1.9 |
Head to head
16 meetings in our database: Northampton won 2, 7 draws, Rochdale won 7. Per match: 2.4 goals.
- 11.02.2023: Rochdale 1:1 Northampton
- 17.09.2022: Northampton 3:0 Rochdale
- 26.02.2022: Rochdale 1:0 Northampton
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Draws are common in this fixture: 7 of 16 meetings.
- Our model expects more corners from Northampton: 6.4 against 3.4 for Rochdale.
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 0% of Northampton’s home matches and 57% of Rochdale’s away matches over three seasons.
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 9.8 corners in the match: Northampton 6.4, Rochdale 3.4. In a typical match of this competition — 9.8. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 52% (typical match — 52%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 10.5 — 61%, typical match 60%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.5 yellow cards: Northampton 1.7, Rochdale 1.9; typical match of the competition — 3.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 28% (typical match — 32%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 3.5 — 53%, typical match 49%.
Result
Our model: Northampton win 47%, draw 25%, Rochdale win 28%. Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 56%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Northampton | Rochdale | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 29% | 14% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 57% |
| Both teams score | 14% | 57% |
| Total corners per match | 8.9 | 9.7 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 43% | 43% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 2.7 | 3.3 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 14% | 29% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 8.3 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 2.6 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.