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Gillingham vs Crewe: prediction and statistics
England · League Two · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Gillingham · Crewe
Before kick-off
League Two, 21 November 2026: Gillingham are at home to Crewe. Crewe sit 5th in the 24-team table while Gillingham are 12th, so 7 places separate the two sides.
An uneven run for Gillingham: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats from the last 5 games. Crewe have blown hot and cold: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in the last 5 matches. In points that is almost level: 5 against 5.
At home (2024/25–2026/27) Gillingham have 20 wins, 15 draws and 18 defeats in 53 matches, averaging 1.1 goals scored and 1.2 conceded. The away record of Crewe: 15 wins, 19 draws and 19 defeats in 53 matches, with 1.0 goals scored and 1.1 conceded on average.
Head to head there is no clear master over 20 meetings — wins: Gillingham 10, Crewe 7; draws: 3. The most recent meeting, on 14 February 2026, finished Crewe 1:0 Gillingham. On average these meetings produce 2.4 goals.
Form
Gillingham: last five matches — D-W-D-L-L.
- 3 matches without a win · at home
- 3 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · at home
- 3 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
Crewe: last five matches — D-D-W-L-L.
- 8 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · away
- 5 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row under 9.5 corners · away
Table: Gillingham — 12, Crewe — 5 (of 24).
Home and away record
Gillingham at home and Crewe away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Gillingham | Crewe | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 53 | 53 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 20-15-18 | 15-19-19 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.2 | 1.1 |
Head to head
20 meetings in our database: Gillingham won 10, 3 draws, Crewe won 7. Per match: 2.4 goals.
- 14.02.2026: Crewe 1:0 Gillingham
- 23.08.2025: Gillingham 1:0 Crewe
- 15.02.2025: Gillingham 0:0 Crewe
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- No clear favourite in our model: 32% – 25% – 44%.
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 42% of Gillingham’s home matches and 32% of Crewe’s away matches over three seasons.
- Our model expects more corners from Gillingham: 5.5 against 4.3 for Crewe.
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 9.8 corners in the match: Gillingham 5.5, Crewe 4.3. In a typical match of this competition — 9.8. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 52% (typical match — 52%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 10.5 — 61%, typical match 60%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.6 yellow cards: Gillingham 1.9, Crewe 1.7; typical match of the competition — 3.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 29% (typical match — 32%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 3.5 — 52%, typical match 49%.
Result
Our model: Gillingham win 32%, draw 25%, Crewe win 44%. Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 57%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Gillingham | Crewe | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 38% | 28% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 32% |
| Both teams score | 49% | 51% |
| Total corners per match | 8.6 | 9.1 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 38% | 49% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.5 | 4.0 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 47% | 36% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 10.3 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 2.8 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.