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Grimsby vs Rotherham: prediction and statistics
England · League Two · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Grimsby · Rotherham
Before kick-off
Grimsby host Rotherham in League Two on 21 November 2026. In the table there is clear daylight between them: Grimsby are 3rd of 24, Rotherham 23rd — a gap of 20 places. Grimsby are in the top three. Rotherham are fighting at the wrong end of the table.
Results have gone against Grimsby recently — 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats from the last 5 games. Rotherham are in a difficult spell: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in the last 5 matches. Measured in points the two runs are close — 4 and 4.
The home record of Grimsby (2024/25–2026/27) is balanced: 26 wins, 9 draws and 19 defeats in 54 matches, 1.6 scored and 1.2 conceded per game. Rotherham find it hard on the road: 1 win, 1 draw and 5 defeats in 7 away matches, 0.7 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game.
The sides have rarely met: the Xpect database holds 2 meetings between them. Last time out (30 July 2024) it ended Grimsby 2:2 Rotherham.
Form
Grimsby: last five matches — L-D-L-W-L.
- 6 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · all competitions
Rotherham: last five matches — D-L-L-L-W.
- 5 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row under 9.5 corners · all competitions
Table: Grimsby — 3, Rotherham — 23 (of 24).
Home and away record
Grimsby at home and Rotherham away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Grimsby | Rotherham | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 54 | 7 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 26-9-19 | 1-1-5 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.2 | 1.4 |
Head to head
2 meetings in our database: Grimsby won 0, 1 draws, Rotherham won 1. Per match: 2.5 goals.
- 30.07.2024: Grimsby 2:2 Rotherham
- 24.07.2021: Grimsby 0:1 Rotherham
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Our model makes Grimsby the favourite at 61%; a draw is 22%.
- Grimsby should win the corner count: 6.3 expected against 3.9 for Rotherham.
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 54% of Grimsby home games and 43% of Rotherham away games.
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.2 corners in the match: Grimsby 6.3, Rotherham 3.9. In a typical match of this competition — 9.8. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 56% (typical match — 52%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 56%, typical match 52%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.8 yellow cards: Grimsby 1.4, Rotherham 2.4; typical match of the competition — 3.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 34% (typical match — 32%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 54%, typical match 51%.
Result
Our model: Grimsby win 61%, draw 22%, Rotherham win 17%. Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 52%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Grimsby | Rotherham | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 48% | 14% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 43% |
| Both teams score | 52% | 43% |
| Total corners per match | 10.6 | 10.4 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 61% | 57% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.1 | 4.3 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 41% | 29% |
Head to head
Yellow cards in their meetings: 0.5 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.