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Chelyabinsk vs Leningradets: prediction and statistics
Russia · First League · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Chelyabinsk · Leningradets
Before kick-off
Chelyabinsk host Leningradets in First League on 21 November 2026. Very little separates them in the standings — Chelyabinsk are 11th, Leningradets 13th in a table of 18.
Chelyabinsk have blown hot and cold: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in the last 5 matches. An uneven run for Leningradets: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats from the last 5 games.
The home record of Chelyabinsk (2024/25–2026/27) is balanced: 10 wins, 9 draws and 6 defeats in 25 matches, 1.6 scored and 1.3 conceded per game. Leningradets find it hard on the road: 1 win, 2 draws and 5 defeats in 8 away matches, 0.5 goals scored and 2.1 conceded per game.
Draws are a feature of this pairing — 3 in 5 meetings. Last time out (23 August 2026) it ended Leningradets 1:1 Chelyabinsk. On average these meetings produce 1.2 goals.
Form
Chelyabinsk: last five matches — L-W-D-L-W.
- 5 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · at home
Leningradets: last five matches — W-L-L-D-D.
- 4 matches without a win · away
- 4 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · away
Table: Chelyabinsk — 11, Leningradets — 13 (of 18).
Home and away record
Chelyabinsk at home and Leningradets away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Chelyabinsk | Leningradets | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 25 | 8 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 10-9-6 | 1-2-5 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.3 | 2.1 |
Head to head
5 meetings in our database: Chelyabinsk won 0, 3 draws, Leningradets won 2. Per match: 1.2 goals.
- 23.08.2026: Leningradets 1:1 Chelyabinsk
- 27.04.2025: Leningradets 1:0 Chelyabinsk
- 09.03.2025: Chelyabinsk 1:2 Leningradets
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Chelyabinsk should win the corner count: 6.0 expected against 3.7 for Leningradets.
- 3 of the 5 meetings between these teams ended in a draw.
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 56% of Chelyabinsk home games and 38% of Leningradets away games.
- Our model makes Chelyabinsk the favourite at 54%; a draw is 24%.
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 9.7 corners in the match: Chelyabinsk 6.0, Leningradets 3.7. In a typical match of this competition — 9.2. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 50% (typical match — 44%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 50%, typical match 44%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.7 yellow cards: Chelyabinsk 1.6, Leningradets 2.1; typical match of the competition — 4.6. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 31% (typical match — 49%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 69%, typical match 51%.
Result
Our model: Chelyabinsk win 54%, draw 24%, Leningradets win 22%. Over 2.5 goals — 51%, both teams to score — 52%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Chelyabinsk | Leningradets | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 40% | 13% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 38% |
| Both teams score | 60% | 38% |
| Total corners per match | 12.4 | 11.0 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 100% | 50% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.2 | 3.1 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 32% | 38% |
Head to head
Yellow cards in their meetings: 2.8 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.