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Nizhny Novgorod vs Torpedo Moskva: prediction and statistics

Russia · First League · 21 November 2026 · kick-off

Team stats: Nizhny Novgorod · Torpedo Moskva

Before kick-off

Nizhny Novgorod host Torpedo Moskva in First League on 21 November 2026. Very little separates them in the standings — Nizhny Novgorod are 1st, Torpedo Moskva 2nd in a table of 18. Both sides are in the top three.

Nizhny Novgorod arrive in excellent form: 4 wins and 1 draw in the last 5 matches. Few sides are in better shape than Torpedo Moskva right now — 4 wins and 1 draw from the last 5 games. Measured in points the two runs are close — 13 and 13.

Home advantage matters here: Nizhny Novgorod have 7 wins and 1 draw in 8 home matches (2024/25–2026/27), scoring 4.1 and conceding 0.9 per game. On the road Torpedo Moskva are a dangerous side — 21 wins, 13 draws and 10 defeats in 44 away matches, 1.2 scored and 0.9 conceded per game.

History favours Nizhny Novgorod — 6 wins from 9 meetings with Torpedo Moskva. Last time out (13 September 2026) it ended Torpedo Moskva 1:2 Nizhny Novgorod. On average these meetings produce 3.0 goals.

Form

Nizhny Novgorod: last five matches — D-W-W-W-W.

Torpedo Moskva: last five matches — W-W-W-D-W.

Table: Nizhny Novgorod — 1, Torpedo Moskva — 2 (of 18).

Home and away record

Nizhny Novgorod at home and Torpedo Moskva away, 2024/25–2026/27.

Nizhny NovgorodTorpedo Moskva
Matches844
Wins · draws · losses7-1-021-13-10
Goals scored per match4.11.2
Goals conceded per match0.90.9

Head to head

9 meetings in our database: Nizhny Novgorod won 6, 2 draws, Torpedo Moskva won 1. Per match: 3.0 goals.

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Key facts

  • Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 100% of Nizhny Novgorod home games and 27% of Torpedo Moskva away games.
  • Our model makes Nizhny Novgorod the favourite at 65%; a draw is 20%.
  • Nizhny Novgorod should win the corner count: 5.4 expected against 3.6 for Torpedo Moskva.
  • Nizhny Novgorod has won 6 of the last 9 meetings with Torpedo Moskva.

Corners

58%

Corners under 9.5

Our model expects 9.1 corners in the match: Nizhny Novgorod 5.4, Torpedo Moskva 3.6. In a typical match of this competition — 9.2. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 42% (typical match — 44%).

This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 58%, typical match 56%.

Yellow cards

54%

Yellow cards under 4.5

Our model expects 4.5 yellow cards: Nizhny Novgorod 2.1, Torpedo Moskva 2.4; typical match of the competition — 4.6. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 46% (typical match — 49%).

This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 54%, typical match 51%.

Result

Our model: Nizhny Novgorod win 65%, draw 20%, Torpedo Moskva win 15%. Over 2.5 goals — 56%, both teams to score — 51%.

Team statistics for three seasons

Nizhny NovgorodTorpedo Moskva
Win rate88%48%
Over 2.5 goals100%27%
Both teams score50%39%
Total corners per match8.76.9
Over 9.5 corners33%13%
Total yellow cards per match3.43.4
Over 4.5 yellow cards38%21%

Head to head

Corners in their meetings: 10.0 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 4.1 per match on average.

How we calculate

Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.

Other matches

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