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Shinnik Yaroslavl vs FK Neftekhimik: prediction and statistics
Russia · First League · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Shinnik Yaroslavl · FK Neftekhimik
Before kick-off
First League, 21 November 2026: Shinnik Yaroslavl are at home to FK Neftekhimik. Shinnik Yaroslavl sit 7th in the 18-team table while FK Neftekhimik are 17th, so 10 places separate the two sides. FK Neftekhimik are in the bottom three.
Recent results of Shinnik Yaroslavl are mostly positive — 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat from 5 games. Results have gone against FK Neftekhimik recently — 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats from the last 5 games. On points from those games the gap is clear: 10 for Shinnik Yaroslavl against 4 for FK Neftekhimik.
At home (2024/25–2026/27) Shinnik Yaroslavl have 17 wins, 15 draws and 12 defeats in 44 matches, averaging 1.1 goals scored and 0.9 conceded. The away record of FK Neftekhimik: 10 wins, 11 draws and 21 defeats in 42 matches, with 1.0 goals scored and 1.4 conceded on average.
Head to head there is no clear master over 17 meetings — wins: Shinnik Yaroslavl 6, FK Neftekhimik 6; draws: 5. The most recent meeting, on 14 August 2026, finished FK Neftekhimik 0:2 Shinnik Yaroslavl. On average these meetings produce 2.7 goals.
Form
Shinnik Yaroslavl: last five matches — L-D-W-W-W.
- 4 matches unbeaten · at home
- 3 wins in a row · at home
FK Neftekhimik: last five matches — W-D-L-L-L.
- 8 matches without a win · all competitions
- 3 losses in a row · away
- 3 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · away
Table: Shinnik Yaroslavl — 7, FK Neftekhimik — 17 (of 18).
Home and away record
Shinnik Yaroslavl at home and FK Neftekhimik away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Shinnik Yaroslavl | FK Neftekhimik | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 44 | 42 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 17-15-12 | 10-11-21 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.9 | 1.4 |
Head to head
17 meetings in our database: Shinnik Yaroslavl won 6, 5 draws, FK Neftekhimik won 6. Per match: 2.7 goals.
- 14.08.2026: FK Neftekhimik 0:2 Shinnik Yaroslavl
- 28.03.2026: FK Neftekhimik 0:0 Shinnik Yaroslavl
- 15.10.2025: Shinnik Yaroslavl 4:6 FK Neftekhimik
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 25% of Shinnik Yaroslavl’s home matches and 36% of FK Neftekhimik’s away matches over three seasons.
- Our model expects more corners from Shinnik Yaroslavl: 5.9 against 4.0 for FK Neftekhimik.
- Shinnik Yaroslavl is the more likely winner in our model: 57%, draw 25%.
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 9.9 corners in the match: Shinnik Yaroslavl 5.9, FK Neftekhimik 4.0. In a typical match of this competition — 9.2. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 53% (typical match — 44%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 53%, typical match 44%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.7 yellow cards: Shinnik Yaroslavl 1.6, FK Neftekhimik 2.1; typical match of the competition — 4.6. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 32% (typical match — 49%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 68%, typical match 51%.
Result
Our model: Shinnik Yaroslavl win 57%, draw 25%, FK Neftekhimik win 18%. Over 2.5 goals — 41%, both teams to score — 42%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Shinnik Yaroslavl | FK Neftekhimik | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 39% | 24% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 25% | 36% |
| Both teams score | 34% | 41% |
| Total corners per match | 10.6 | 10.2 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 50% | 60% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.3 | 3.4 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 23% | 21% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 13.0 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 2.3 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.