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KAMAZ vs Spartak Kostroma: prediction and statistics
Russia · First League · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: KAMAZ · Spartak Kostroma
Before kick-off
First League, 21 November 2026: KAMAZ are at home to Spartak Kostroma. Spartak Kostroma sit 6th in the 18-team table while KAMAZ are 16th, so 10 places separate the two sides. KAMAZ are fighting at the wrong end of the table.
An uneven run for KAMAZ: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats from the last 5 games. Spartak Kostroma have blown hot and cold: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in the last 5 matches.
At home (2024/25–2026/27) KAMAZ have 16 wins, 12 draws and 14 defeats in 42 matches, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 1.1 conceded. Spartak Kostroma travel well: 11 wins, 7 draws and 8 defeats in 26 away matches, with 1.4 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game.
Head to head there is no clear master over 4 meetings — wins: KAMAZ 2, Spartak Kostroma 1; draws: 1. The most recent meeting, on 12 July 2026, finished Spartak Kostroma 3:1 KAMAZ. On average these meetings produce 4.2 goals.
Form
KAMAZ: last five matches — L-L-D-W-D.
- 5 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
- 3 matches unbeaten · at home
- 3 matches without a win · all competitions
Spartak Kostroma: last five matches — W-W-L-L-D.
- 4 matches without a win · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row both teams scored · away
Table: KAMAZ — 16, Spartak Kostroma — 6 (of 18).
Home and away record
KAMAZ at home and Spartak Kostroma away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| KAMAZ | Spartak Kostroma | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 42 | 26 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 16-12-14 | 11-7-8 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.1 | 1.3 |
Head to head
4 meetings in our database: KAMAZ won 2, 1 draws, Spartak Kostroma won 1. Per match: 4.2 goals.
- 12.07.2026: Spartak Kostroma 3:1 KAMAZ
- 01.05.2026: KAMAZ 2:0 Spartak Kostroma
- 11.10.2025: Spartak Kostroma 1:1 KAMAZ
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- No clear favourite in our model: 39% – 27% – 33%.
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 48% of KAMAZ’s home matches and 54% of Spartak Kostroma’s away matches over three seasons.
- Our model expects more corners from KAMAZ: 5.5 against 4.0 for Spartak Kostroma.
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.6 corners in the match: KAMAZ 5.5, Spartak Kostroma 4.0. In a typical match of this competition — 9.2. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 49% (typical match — 44%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 8.5 — 62%, typical match 57%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.3 yellow cards: KAMAZ 1.9, Spartak Kostroma 2.4; typical match of the competition — 4.6. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 43% (typical match — 49%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 57%, typical match 51%.
Result
Our model: KAMAZ win 39%, draw 27%, Spartak Kostroma win 33%. Over 2.5 goals — 44%, both teams to score — 49%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| KAMAZ | Spartak Kostroma | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 38% | 42% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 54% |
| Both teams score | 57% | 62% |
| Total corners per match | 9.7 | 10.7 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 67% | 57% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.2 | 4.0 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 48% | 31% |
Head to head
Yellow cards in their meetings: 3.3 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.