Xpect
FC Sochi vs Veles: prediction and statistics
Russia · First League · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Before kick-off
FC Sochi host Veles in First League on 21 November 2026. Very little separates them in the standings — FC Sochi are 4th, Veles 5th in a table of 18.
FC Sochi have blown hot and cold: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in the last 5 matches. An uneven run for Veles: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats from the last 5 games.
Home advantage matters here: FC Sochi have 15 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats in 25 home matches (2024/25–2026/27), scoring 1.8 and conceding 0.8 per game. Away from home Veles have 3 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats in 8 matches, scoring 0.9 and conceding 1.3 per game.
The sides have rarely met: the Xpect database holds 1 meeting between them. Last time out (14 September 2026) it ended Veles 1:2 FC Sochi.
Form
FC Sochi: last five matches — W-L-D-W-L.
- 4 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · at home
- 3 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
Veles: last five matches — D-L-D-W-L.
Table: FC Sochi — 4, Veles — 5 (of 18).
Home and away record
FC Sochi at home and Veles away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| FC Sochi | Veles | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 25 | 8 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 15-4-6 | 3-2-3 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.8 | 1.3 |
Head to head
1 meetings in our database: FC Sochi won 1, 0 draws, Veles won 0. Per match: 3.0 goals.
- 14.09.2026: Veles 1:2 FC Sochi
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Our model makes FC Sochi the favourite at 51%; a draw is 25%.
- FC Sochi should win the corner count: 5.7 expected against 3.5 for Veles.
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 48% of FC Sochi home games and 25% of Veles away games.
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.2 corners in the match: FC Sochi 5.7, Veles 3.5. In a typical match of this competition — 9.2. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 44% (typical match — 44%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 56%, typical match 56%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.0 yellow cards: FC Sochi 1.6, Veles 2.4; typical match of the competition — 4.6. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 38% (typical match — 49%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 63%, typical match 51%.
Result
Our model: FC Sochi win 51%, draw 25%, Veles win 24%. Over 2.5 goals — 48%, both teams to score — 50%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| FC Sochi | Veles | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 60% | 38% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 25% |
| Both teams score | 40% | 50% |
| Total corners per match | 10.2 | 6.5 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 60% | 17% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.2 | 4.0 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 44% | 38% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 9.0 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 5.0 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.