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FC UFA vs Ural: prediction and statistics
Russia · First League · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Before kick-off
FC UFA host Ural in First League on 21 November 2026. In the standings FC UFA are 8th and Ural 3rd out of 18 teams. Ural are part of the leading group.
FC UFA have blown hot and cold: 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat in the last 5 matches. Few sides are in better shape than Ural right now — 4 wins and 1 draw from the last 5 games. Counted in points, Ural took 13 from that stretch and FC UFA only 6.
The home record of FC UFA (2024/25–2026/27) is balanced: 19 wins, 11 draws and 13 defeats in 43 matches, 1.3 scored and 1.1 conceded per game. On the road Ural are a dangerous side — 18 wins, 13 draws and 12 defeats in 43 away matches, 1.3 scored and 1.1 conceded per game.
The 23 previous meetings are fairly balanced — FC UFA 5, Ural 12, draws 6. Last time out (8 August 2026) it ended Ural 3:0 FC UFA. On average these meetings produce 2.4 goals.
Form
FC UFA: last five matches — D-D-D-W-L.
- 3 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · at home
- 3 matches in a row without both teams scoring · at home
- 3 matches without a win · all competitions
Ural: last five matches — D-W-W-W-W.
- 5 matches unbeaten · away
- 4 wins in a row · away
- 3 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · away
Table: FC UFA — 8, Ural — 3 (of 18).
Home and away record
FC UFA at home and Ural away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| FC UFA | Ural | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 43 | 43 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 19-11-13 | 18-13-12 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.1 | 1.1 |
Head to head
23 meetings in our database: FC UFA won 5, 6 draws, Ural won 12. Per match: 2.4 goals.
- 08.08.2026: Ural 3:0 FC UFA
- 12.04.2026: Ural 0:0 FC UFA
- 15.09.2025: FC UFA 2:3 Ural
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Ural should win the corner count: 5.2 expected against 4.1 for FC UFA.
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 42% of FC UFA home games and 40% of Ural away games.
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.3 corners in the match: FC UFA 4.1, Ural 5.2. In a typical match of this competition — 9.2. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 45% (typical match — 44%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 8.5 — 58%, typical match 57%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.5 yellow cards: FC UFA 2.1, Ural 2.4; typical match of the competition — 4.6. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 47% (typical match — 49%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 53%, typical match 51%.
Result
Our model: FC UFA win 25%, draw 30%, Ural win 45%. Over 2.5 goals — 33%, both teams to score — 39%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| FC UFA | Ural | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 44% | 42% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 40% |
| Both teams score | 37% | 49% |
| Total corners per match | 8.3 | 8.0 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 50% | 50% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.6 | 3.8 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 28% | 26% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 11.2 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 3.8 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.