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Gamba Osaka vs Fagiano Okayama: prediction and statistics

Japan · J1 League · 21 November 2026 · kick-off

Team stats: Gamba Osaka · Fagiano Okayama

Before kick-off

Gamba Osaka host Fagiano Okayama in J1 League on 21 November 2026. In the table there is clear daylight between them: Fagiano Okayama are 10th of 20, Gamba Osaka 18th — a gap of 8 places. Gamba Osaka are in the bottom three.

Gamba Osaka have blown hot and cold: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in the last 5 matches. An uneven run for Fagiano Okayama: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats from the last 5 games. Measured in points the two runs are close — 5 and 5.

The home record of Gamba Osaka (2025–2027) is balanced: 16 wins, 7 draws and 12 defeats in 35 matches, 1.6 scored and 1.4 conceded per game. Away from home Fagiano Okayama have 10 wins, 11 draws and 15 defeats in 36 matches, scoring 1.1 and conceding 1.4 per game.

The 6 previous meetings are fairly balanced — Gamba Osaka 2, Fagiano Okayama 2, draws 2. Last time out (19 April 2026) it ended Gamba Osaka 2:2 Fagiano Okayama. On average these meetings produce 3.2 goals.

Form

Gamba Osaka: last five matches — L-W-D-D-L.

Fagiano Okayama: last five matches — W-L-D-L-D.

Table: Gamba Osaka — 18, Fagiano Okayama — 10 (of 20).

Home and away record

Gamba Osaka at home and Fagiano Okayama away, 2025–2027.

Gamba OsakaFagiano Okayama
Matches3536
Wins · draws · losses16-7-1210-11-15
Goals scored per match1.61.1
Goals conceded per match1.41.4

Head to head

6 meetings in our database: Gamba Osaka won 2, 2 draws, Fagiano Okayama won 2. Per match: 3.2 goals.

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Key facts

  • Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 54% of Gamba Osaka home games and 50% of Fagiano Okayama away games.
  • Our model makes Gamba Osaka the favourite at 55%; a draw is 22%.

Corners

52%

Corners over 9.5

Our model expects 9.8 corners in the match: Gamba Osaka 4.6, Fagiano Okayama 5.2. In a typical match of this competition — 9.6. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 52% (typical match — 49%).

This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 52%, typical match 49%.

Yellow cards

86%

Yellow cards under 4.5

Our model expects 2.8 yellow cards: Gamba Osaka 1.2, Fagiano Okayama 1.6; typical match of the competition — 2.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 14% (typical match — 14%).

This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 86%, typical match 86%.

Result

Our model: Gamba Osaka win 55%, draw 22%, Fagiano Okayama win 23%. Over 2.5 goals — 60%, both teams to score — 59%.

Team statistics for three seasons

Gamba OsakaFagiano Okayama
Win rate46%28%
Over 2.5 goals54%50%
Both teams score49%67%
Total corners per match9.110.6
Over 9.5 corners46%61%
Total yellow cards per match2.22.4
Over 4.5 yellow cards14%6%

Head to head

Corners in their meetings: 9.5 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 2.0 per match on average.

How we calculate

Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.

Other matches

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