Xpect
Nassaji Mazandaran vs Aluminium Arak: prediction and statistics
Iran · Persian Gulf Pro League · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Nassaji Mazandaran · Aluminium Arak
Before kick-off
Persian Gulf Pro League, 21 November 2026: Nassaji Mazandaran are at home to Aluminium Arak. Aluminium Arak sit 6th in the 18-team table while Nassaji Mazandaran are 12th, so 6 places separate the two sides.
An uneven run for Nassaji Mazandaran: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats from the last 5 games. Aluminium Arak have blown hot and cold: 2 wins and 3 defeats in the last 5 matches. In points that is almost level: 5 against 6.
Nassaji Mazandaran have not made their ground a fortress: 2 wins, 10 draws and 9 defeats in 21 home matches (2024/25–2026/27), 0.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game. The away record of Aluminium Arak: 8 wins, 8 draws and 16 defeats in 32 matches, with 0.9 goals scored and 1.3 conceded on average. Both samples are low on goals: 1.5 per game in home matches of Nassaji Mazandaran and 2.2 in away matches of Aluminium Arak.
This fixture often ends level: 7 of the 17 meetings in the Xpect database were draws. The most recent meeting, on 27 January 2025, finished Nassaji Mazandaran 1:2 Aluminium Arak. On average these meetings produce 1.5 goals.
Form
Nassaji Mazandaran: last five matches — L-W-D-D-L.
- 6 matches without a win · all competitions
- 6 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
Aluminium Arak: last five matches — W-W-L-L-L.
- 3 losses in a row · away
- 3 matches without a win · away
- 3 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
Table: Nassaji Mazandaran — 12, Aluminium Arak — 6 (of 18).
Home and away record
Nassaji Mazandaran at home and Aluminium Arak away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Nassaji Mazandaran | Aluminium Arak | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 21 | 32 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 2-10-9 | 8-8-16 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.5 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.0 | 1.3 |
Head to head
17 meetings in our database: Nassaji Mazandaran won 4, 7 draws, Aluminium Arak won 6. Per match: 1.5 goals.
- 27.01.2025: Nassaji Mazandaran 1:2 Aluminium Arak
- 22.08.2024: Aluminium Arak 1:1 Nassaji Mazandaran
- 17.03.2024: Aluminium Arak 1:0 Nassaji Mazandaran
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- No clear favourite in our model: 35% – 34% – 31%.
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 19% of Nassaji Mazandaran’s home matches and 38% of Aluminium Arak’s away matches over three seasons.
- Draws are common in this fixture: 7 of 17 meetings.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.6 yellow cards: Nassaji Mazandaran 1.6, Aluminium Arak 2.0; typical match of the competition — 3.5. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 29% (typical match — 28%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 71%, typical match 72%.
Result
Our model: Nassaji Mazandaran win 35%, draw 34%, Aluminium Arak win 31%. Over 2.5 goals — 25%, both teams to score — 34%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Nassaji Mazandaran | Aluminium Arak | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 10% | 25% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 19% | 38% |
| Both teams score | 33% | 44% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.5 | 2.9 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 29% | 16% |
Head to head
Yellow cards in their meetings: 0.6 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.