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Notts County vs Stevenage: prediction and statistics
England · League One · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Notts County · Stevenage
Before kick-off
League One, 21 November 2026: Notts County are at home to Stevenage. They are neighbours in the table: Notts County are 18th and Stevenage 16th of 24.
Recent results of Notts County are mostly positive — 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat from 5 games. Stevenage have blown hot and cold: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in the last 5 matches.
At home (2024/25–2026/27) Notts County have 2 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats in 6 matches, averaging 1.2 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. The away record of Stevenage: 14 wins, 15 draws and 24 defeats in 53 matches, with 0.8 goals scored and 1.3 conceded on average. Both samples are low on goals: 2.2 per game in home matches of Notts County and 2.1 in away matches of Stevenage.
Head to head there is no clear master over 15 meetings — wins: Notts County 7, Stevenage 5; draws: 3. The most recent meeting, on 30 March 2019, finished Stevenage 0:3 Notts County. On average these meetings produce 2.1 goals.
Form
Notts County: last five matches — W-L-W-W-D.
- 5 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
Stevenage: last five matches — L-W-L-D-W.
- 4 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · away
- 4 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · away
- 3 matches unbeaten · all competitions
Table: Notts County — 18, Stevenage — 16 (of 24).
Home and away record
Notts County at home and Stevenage away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Notts County | Stevenage | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 6 | 53 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 2-2-2 | 14-15-24 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.0 | 1.3 |
Head to head
15 meetings in our database: Notts County won 7, 3 draws, Stevenage won 5. Per match: 2.1 goals.
- 30.03.2019: Stevenage 0:3 Notts County
- 15.09.2018: Notts County 3:3 Stevenage
- 24.02.2018: Notts County 2:0 Stevenage
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 33% of Notts County’s home matches and 36% of Stevenage’s away matches over three seasons.
- Our model expects more corners from Notts County: 5.4 against 4.4 for Stevenage.
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 9.8 corners in the match: Notts County 5.4, Stevenage 4.4. In a typical match of this competition — 10.2. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 52% (typical match — 57%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 10.5 — 61%, typical match 56%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.2 yellow cards: Notts County 2.1, Stevenage 2.2; typical match of the competition — 3.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 42% (typical match — 32%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 61%, typical match 51%.
Result
Our model: Notts County win 49%, draw 26%, Stevenage win 25%. Over 2.5 goals — 47%, both teams to score — 50%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Notts County | Stevenage | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 33% | 26% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 36% |
| Both teams score | 67% | 42% |
| Total corners per match | 8.5 | 9.6 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 17% | 60% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.8 | 3.6 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 67% | 30% |
Head to head
Yellow cards in their meetings: 1.4 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.