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Oldham vs Exeter City: prediction and statistics
England · League Two · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Oldham · Exeter City
Before kick-off
Oldham host Exeter City in League Two on 21 November 2026. In the table there is clear daylight between them: Exeter City are 8th of 24, Oldham 20th — a gap of 12 places.
Oldham have been solid lately: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in the last 5 matches. An uneven run for Exeter City: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats from the last 5 games.
The home record of Oldham (2024/25–2026/27) is balanced: 13 wins, 9 draws and 8 defeats in 30 matches, 1.4 scored and 0.9 conceded per game. Exeter City find it hard on the road: 1 win, 1 draw and 5 defeats in 7 away matches, 0.4 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game. Both samples are low on goals: 2.2 per game in home matches of Oldham and 1.4 in away matches of Exeter City.
History favours Exeter City — 6 wins from 10 meetings with Oldham. Last time out (19 March 2022) it ended Oldham 0:2 Exeter City. On average these meetings produce 2.5 goals.
Form
Oldham: last five matches — D-W-W-L-W.
- 3 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
Exeter City: last five matches — L-W-D-L-W.
- 6 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
Table: Oldham — 20, Exeter City — 8 (of 24).
Home and away record
Oldham at home and Exeter City away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Oldham | Exeter City | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 30 | 7 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 13-9-8 | 1-1-5 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.9 | 1.0 |
Head to head
10 meetings in our database: Oldham won 2, 2 draws, Exeter City won 6. Per match: 2.5 goals.
- 19.03.2022: Oldham 0:2 Exeter City
- 13.11.2021: Exeter City 2:1 Oldham
- 23.03.2021: Oldham 2:1 Exeter City
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Our model sees an open game: Oldham 31%, draw 27%, Exeter City 42%.
- Exeter City has won 6 of the last 10 meetings with Oldham.
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 43% of Oldham home games and 29% of Exeter City away games.
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 9.7 corners in the match: Oldham 5.1, Exeter City 4.7. In a typical match of this competition — 9.8. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 51% (typical match — 52%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 10.5 — 62%, typical match 60%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.5 yellow cards: Oldham 1.5, Exeter City 1.9; typical match of the competition — 3.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 27% (typical match — 32%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 3.5 — 55%, typical match 49%.
Result
Our model: Oldham win 31%, draw 27%, Exeter City win 42%. Over 2.5 goals — 45%, both teams to score — 50%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Oldham | Exeter City | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 43% | 14% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 29% |
| Both teams score | 43% | 29% |
| Total corners per match | 9.9 | 9.3 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 50% | 43% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.0 | 4.0 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 43% | 43% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 11.2 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 3.3 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.