Xpect
Palmeiras vs Flamengo: prediction and statistics
Brazil · Serie A · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Palmeiras · Flamengo
Before kick-off
Palmeiras host Flamengo in Serie A on 21 November 2026. Very little separates them in the standings — Palmeiras are 2nd, Flamengo 1st in a table of 20. Both sides are in the top three.
Palmeiras arrive in excellent form: 4 wins and 1 defeat in the last 5 matches. Few sides are in better shape than Flamengo right now — 3 wins and 2 draws from the last 5 games. Measured in points the two runs are close — 12 and 11.
Home advantage matters here: Palmeiras have 37 wins, 10 draws and 8 defeats in 55 home matches (2024–2026), scoring 1.9 and conceding 0.7 per game. On the road Flamengo are a dangerous side — 28 wins, 14 draws and 13 defeats in 55 away matches, 1.8 scored and 1.0 conceded per game.
Draws are a feature of this pairing — 16 in 37 meetings. Last time out (24 May 2026) it ended Flamengo 0:3 Palmeiras. On average these meetings produce 2.6 goals.
Form
Palmeiras: last five matches — W-L-W-W-W.
- 3 wins in a row · at home
- 3 matches unbeaten · at home
Flamengo: last five matches — W-D-D-W-W.
- 15 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 6 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · away
- 4 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
Table: Palmeiras — 2, Flamengo — 1 (of 20).
Home and away record
Palmeiras at home and Flamengo away, 2024–2026.
| Palmeiras | Flamengo | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 55 | 55 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 37-10-8 | 28-14-13 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.9 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.7 | 1.0 |
Head to head
37 meetings in our database: Palmeiras won 9, 16 draws, Flamengo won 12. Per match: 2.6 goals.
- 24.05.2026: Flamengo 0:3 Palmeiras
- 29.11.2025: Palmeiras 0:1 Flamengo
- 19.10.2025: Flamengo 3:2 Palmeiras
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- 16 of the 37 meetings between these teams ended in a draw.
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 46% of Palmeiras home games and 58% of Flamengo away games.
- Our model sees an open game: Palmeiras 44%, draw 26%, Flamengo 30%.
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.2 corners in the match: Palmeiras 5.3, Flamengo 4.9. In a typical match of this competition — 10.4. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 57% (typical match — 59%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 10.5 — 55%, typical match 53%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.6 yellow cards: Palmeiras 2.1, Flamengo 2.5; typical match of the competition — 4.9. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 49% (typical match — 54%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 51%, typical match 46%.
Result
Our model: Palmeiras win 44%, draw 26%, Flamengo win 30%. Over 2.5 goals — 47%, both teams to score — 51%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Palmeiras | Flamengo | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 67% | 51% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 58% |
| Both teams score | 44% | 60% |
| Total corners per match | 10.2 | 9.8 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 60% | 51% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.9 | 4.9 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 51% | 56% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 9.8 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 5.2 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.