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Tekstilshchik vs Arsenal Tula: prediction and statistics

Russia · First League · 21 November 2026 · kick-off

Team stats: Tekstilshchik · Arsenal Tula

Before kick-off

First League, 21 November 2026: Tekstilshchik are at home to Arsenal Tula. Arsenal Tula sit 12th in the 18-team table while Tekstilshchik are 18th, so 6 places separate the two sides. Tekstilshchik are fighting at the wrong end of the table.

An uneven run for Tekstilshchik: 2 wins and 3 defeats from the last 5 games. Results have gone against Arsenal Tula recently — 1 win and 4 defeats from the last 5 games.

Tekstilshchik have not made their ground a fortress: 1 win, 2 draws and 5 defeats in 8 home matches (2024/25–2026/27), 0.9 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per game. The away record of Arsenal Tula: 7 wins, 17 draws and 18 defeats in 42 matches, with 0.9 goals scored and 1.5 conceded on average.

Head to head there is no clear master over 3 meetings — wins: Tekstilshchik 1, Arsenal Tula 1; draws: 1. The most recent meeting, on 8 September 2026, finished Tekstilshchik 1:0 Arsenal Tula. On average these meetings produce 1.3 goals.

Form

Tekstilshchik: last five matches — L-W-L-W-L.

Arsenal Tula: last five matches — W-L-L-L-L.

Table: Tekstilshchik — 18, Arsenal Tula — 12 (of 18).

Home and away record

Tekstilshchik at home and Arsenal Tula away, 2024/25–2026/27.

TekstilshchikArsenal Tula
Matches842
Wins · draws · losses1-2-57-17-18
Goals scored per match0.90.9
Goals conceded per match2.01.5

Head to head

3 meetings in our database: Tekstilshchik won 1, 1 draws, Arsenal Tula won 1. Per match: 1.3 goals.

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Key facts

  • No clear favourite in our model: 40% – 26% – 34%.
  • Over 2.5 goals happened in 63% of Tekstilshchik’s home matches and 45% of Arsenal Tula’s away matches over three seasons.

Corners

60%

Corners under 9.5

Our model expects 8.9 corners in the match: Tekstilshchik 4.7, Arsenal Tula 4.2. In a typical match of this competition — 9.2. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 40% (typical match — 44%).

This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 60%, typical match 56%.

Yellow cards

58%

Yellow cards under 4.5

Our model expects 4.2 yellow cards: Tekstilshchik 2.0, Arsenal Tula 2.2; typical match of the competition — 4.6. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 42% (typical match — 49%).

This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 58%, typical match 51%.

Result

Our model: Tekstilshchik win 40%, draw 26%, Arsenal Tula win 34%. Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 56%.

Team statistics for three seasons

TekstilshchikArsenal Tula
Win rate13%17%
Over 2.5 goals63%45%
Both teams score63%50%
Total corners per match7.89.0
Over 9.5 corners17%50%
Total yellow cards per match4.43.7
Over 4.5 yellow cards63%33%

Head to head

Corners in their meetings: 7.5 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 3.3 per match on average.

How we calculate

Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.

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