XpectXpect

Hellas Verona vs Cesena: prediction and statistics

Italy · Serie B · 21 November 2026 · kick-off

Team stats: Hellas Verona · Cesena

Before kick-off

Serie B, 21 November 2026: Hellas Verona are at home to Cesena. Hellas Verona sit 5th in the 20-team table while Cesena are 13th, so 8 places separate the two sides.

Few sides are in better shape than Hellas Verona right now — 3 wins and 2 draws from the last 5 games. Cesena have blown hot and cold: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in the last 5 matches. On points from those games the gap is clear: 11 for Hellas Verona against 5 for Cesena.

At home (2024/25–2026/27) Hellas Verona have 3 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in 6 matches, averaging 2.3 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. The away record of Cesena: 13 wins, 10 draws and 21 defeats in 44 matches, with 0.9 goals scored and 1.4 conceded on average.

This fixture often ends level: 3 of the 5 meetings in the Xpect database were draws. The most recent meeting, on 10 August 2024, finished Hellas Verona 1:2 Cesena. On average these meetings produce 2.8 goals.

Form

Hellas Verona: last five matches — W-W-D-D-W.

Cesena: last five matches — W-D-L-L-D.

Table: Hellas Verona — 5, Cesena — 13 (of 20).

Home and away record

Hellas Verona at home and Cesena away, 2024/25–2026/27.

Hellas VeronaCesena
Matches644
Wins · draws · losses3-2-113-10-21
Goals scored per match2.30.9
Goals conceded per match1.01.4

Head to head

5 meetings in our database: Hellas Verona won 1, 3 draws, Cesena won 1. Per match: 2.8 goals.

🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription

Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.

Open in the app →Download for Android

Key facts

  • Hellas Verona is the more likely winner in our model: 68%, draw 20%.
  • Over 2.5 goals happened in 83% of Hellas Verona’s home matches and 43% of Cesena’s away matches over three seasons.
  • Draws are common in this fixture: 3 of 5 meetings.
  • Our model expects more corners from Hellas Verona: 5.6 against 4.3 for Cesena.

Corners

54%

Corners over 9.5

Our model expects 10.0 corners in the match: Hellas Verona 5.6, Cesena 4.3. In a typical match of this competition — 9.8. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 54% (typical match — 51%).

This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 54%, typical match 51%.

Yellow cards

57%

Yellow cards under 4.5

Our model expects 4.3 yellow cards: Hellas Verona 1.9, Cesena 2.4; typical match of the competition — 4.9. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 43% (typical match — 54%).

This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 57%, typical match 46%.

Result

Our model: Hellas Verona win 68%, draw 20%, Cesena win 12%. Over 2.5 goals — 49%, both teams to score — 42%.

Team statistics for three seasons

Hellas VeronaCesena
Win rate50%30%
Over 2.5 goals83%43%
Both teams score67%52%
Total corners per match10.38.4
Over 9.5 corners50%34%
Total yellow cards per match3.54.3
Over 4.5 yellow cards33%55%

Head to head

Corners in their meetings: 10.0 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 4.4 per match on average.

How we calculate

Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.

Other matches

Full prediction