Xpect
York vs Walsall: prediction and statistics
England · League Two · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Before kick-off
York host Walsall in League Two on 21 November 2026. Very little separates them in the standings — York are 4th, Walsall 6th in a table of 24.
York arrive in excellent form: 3 wins and 2 draws in the last 5 matches. An uneven run for Walsall: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats from the last 5 games. Counted in points, York took 11 from that stretch and Walsall only 5.
Home advantage matters here: York have 5 wins and 2 draws in 7 home matches (2024/25–2026/27), scoring 2.3 and conceding 0.7 per game. On the road Walsall are a dangerous side — 22 wins, 19 draws and 14 defeats in 55 away matches, 1.4 scored and 1.0 conceded per game.
There are no previous meetings between the two sides in the Xpect database.
Form
York: last five matches — W-D-D-W-W.
- 6 matches unbeaten · at home
- 4 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row without both teams scoring · all competitions
Walsall: last five matches — D-D-W-L-L.
- 6 matches in a row both teams scored · away
- 5 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · away
Table: York — 4, Walsall — 6 (of 24).
Home and away record
York at home and Walsall away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| York | Walsall | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 7 | 55 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 5-2-0 | 22-19-14 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.3 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.7 | 1.0 |
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- York should win the corner count: 6.2 expected against 4.1 for Walsall.
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 57% of York home games and 42% of Walsall away games.
- Our model sees an open game: York 43%, draw 24%, Walsall 33%.
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.2 corners in the match: York 6.2, Walsall 4.1. In a typical match of this competition — 9.8. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 57% (typical match — 52%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 57%, typical match 52%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.6 yellow cards: York 1.6, Walsall 2.0; typical match of the competition — 3.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 29% (typical match — 32%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 3.5 — 52%, typical match 49%.
Result
Our model: York win 43%, draw 24%, Walsall win 33%. Over 2.5 goals — 57%, both teams to score — 59%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| York | Walsall | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 71% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 42% |
| Both teams score | 57% | 47% |
| Total corners per match | 10.4 | 10.4 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 71% | 60% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.1 | 3.0 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 29% | 20% |
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.